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[monks data]
Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 34
Feb 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park
Millwall logo

Derby
1 - 2
Millwall

Cooper (88' og.)
Allsop (90')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Wallace (2'), Burey (30')
Saville (29')

Preview: Derby County vs. Millwall - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Championship clash between Derby County and Millwall, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Derby County play host to Millwall on Wednesday evening looking to build on their dramatic victory over rivals Peterborough United at the weekend.

At a time when the Rams are five points adrift of safety, Millwall sit in 14th position in the Championship standings, albeit with at least one game in hand on the teams above them.


Match preview

Derby County's Louie Sibley celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 19, 2022© Reuters

Derby have been facing monumental games all season, but the stakes felt significantly higher when they played host to Peterborough on Saturday afternoon.

After a sending off apiece, it appeared that the fixture at Pride Park would end goalless, but Louie Sibley's last-gasp goal secured a potentially-pivotal three points for Wayne Rooney's side.

While there would have been an air of frustration in the dressing room after learning of Reading's shock win at Preston North End, the Rams at least remained within a couple of wins of catching the Royals.

All things considered, Derby's form has been nothing more than satisfactory since the turn of the year with 11 points being collected from eight games.

Nevertheless, it has been enough to keep their hopes of the most unlikely of survivals alive, and Rooney will feel that his squad are in a good place to take advantage of another home game.

Millwall manager Gary Rowett pictured on November 27, 2021© Reuters

Millwall were left frustrated at the weekend when their away fixture at Blackburn Rovers was postponed shortly before kickoff due to the weather and concerns for player safety.

Although the extra rest may benefit the Lions in the short term, Gary Rowett would have wanted to play the game after two successive victories ahead of the trip to Ewood Park.

On the flip side, the East London outfit watched several of the clubs immediately above them fail to win, giving them an opportunity to move into the top half of the table.

Former Derby forward Mason Bennett has impressed for Millwall in recent weeks, contributing three goals from his last five appearances.

Derby County Championship form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W

Millwall Championship form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Derby County manager Wayne Rooney celebrates after the match on February 19, 2022© Reuters

Derby will have to make do without Tom Lawrence, who is serving a suspension after his red card against Peterborough.

Sibley should return to the side after his winning goal during that fixture, while the Rams are boosted by the return of Richard Stearman.

Despite a strong showing from Eiran Cashin at the weekend, the youngster will likely drop back down to the substitutes' bench.

Millwall boss Rowett will make at least one change to his starting lineup with Benik Afobe dealing with a hamstring problem.

Tyler Burey is in line to partner Bennett in attack, but Daniel Ballard may only be named on the substitutes' bench with Murray Wallace and Scott Malone retaining their places in the team.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Davies, Stearman, Forsyth; Bird, Knight, Bielik; Ebosele, Plange, Sibley

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Cooper, Hutchinson, M. Wallace; McNamara, Mitchell, Kieftenbeld, Malone; J. Wallace; Bennett, Burey


SM words green background

We say: Derby County 1-1 Millwall

Millwall will be well rested after the late postponement at the weekend, something which could benefit their efforts on Wednesday. Nevertheless, we still feel that Derby's desire to avoid relegation will help them earn a share of the spoils at Pride Park.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.42%. A win for Millwall had a probability of 28.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Millwall win was 0-1 (9.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Derby vs Millwall

Derby County
51.1%
Draw
29.3%
Millwall
19.6%
92
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