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Brentford logo
Championship | Gameweek 17
Dec 9, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Griffin Park
Derby logo

Brentford
0 - 0
Derby


Dalsgaard (55'), Dasilva (90+1')
FT

Shinnie (41')

Preview: Brentford vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Championship clash between Brentford and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Derby County make the trip to promotion-chasing Brentford on Wednesday evening on the back of a much-needed victory over Millwall.

Meanwhile, the Bees head into Wednesday's encounter at their new ground having put together a nine-match unbeaten streak in the Championship.


Match preview

Brentford manager Thomas Frank pictured on November 7, 2020© Reuters

Having avoided defeat since October 24, you would be forgiven for thinking that Thomas Frank and his Brentford squad will be full of smiles when heading into training this week.

However, a 2-2 draw at home to Blackburn Rovers, opposition who played with 10 men from the 36th minute, has left the Bees with a feeling of underachievement, both in the short and long term.

As well as dealing with the disappointment of Saturday's result, Brentford have barely moved up the standings with a nine-match unbeaten run which has included just four wins.

While just a four-point gap separates the London outfit and leaders Norwich City, Frank requires something extra from his side, particularly in the final third of the pitch.

Overcoming Derby would represent a fourth win in five outings, and there is a feeling that is what is required to keep the team heading in the right direction.

The Rams make their second trip to London in quick succession after battling their way to a narrow triumph over Millwall at the weekend.

Jason Knight's second-half goal gave Wayne Rooney his first win as a manager, and the England legend would have been even more satisfied with his side keeping a rare clean sheet.

Although Rooney will not get carried away with the success at The Den, the result moves Derby to within two points of 20th position, lofty heights when considering that they have spent almost the entire season in the bottom three.

Rooney will be realistic about his team's chances on Wednesday night, but being clear underdogs may suit a team who are looking to play with more freedom under their new interim boss.

Brentford Championship form: DDWWWD

Derby County Championship form: LLLDDW


Team News

Derby County's Wayne Rooney pictured in October 2020© Reuters

The extra day of recovery may lead to Rooney naming an unchanged Derby XI for this game.

However, Max Bird and Martyn Waghorn are both pushing for a chance after making an impact off the substitutes' bench against Millwall.

Brentford boss Frank will likely hand a recall to Bryan Mbuemo, potentially in place of Marcus Forss.

Emiliano Marcondes is also in contention for a starting spot, but Christian Norgaard remains absent through injury.

Brentford possible starting lineup:
Raya; Dalsgaard, Pinnock, Jansson, Henry; Dasilva, Jensen, Janelt; Canos, Toney, Mbuemo

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Byrne, Davies, Clarke, Forsyth; Bird, Bielik; Jozwiak, Knight, Waghorn; Kazim-Richards


SM words green background

We say: Brentford 3-1 Derby County

While Derby will undoubtedly be on a high after their success at the weekend, Brentford will be motivated to put things right after dropping two points against Blackburn. With that in mind, expect the Bees to be more ruthless than in previous games, particularly against opponents who may set up looking for a draw.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 52.91%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Brentford vs Derby

Brentford
68.7%
Draw
21.5%
Derby County
9.8%
163
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Brentford manager Thomas Frank pictured on November 7, 2020
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2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd149321871128
3Leeds UnitedLeeds147522291326
4Burnley146621761124
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom14572148622
6Millwall146441712522
7Watford147162222022
8Middlesbrough146351816221
9Swansea CitySwansea14545119219
10Blackburn RoversBlackburn145451616019
11Bristol City144731819-119
12Norwich CityNorwich144642320318
13Derby CountyDerby145361818018
14Stoke CityStoke145361718-118
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds145361724-718
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd144551717017
17Coventry CityCoventry144371819-115
18Hull City143651518-315
19Luton TownLuton144371621-515
20Preston North EndPreston143651420-615
21Cardiff CityCardiff144371320-715
22Plymouth ArgylePlymouth144371425-1115
23Queens Park RangersQPR141761223-1110
24Portsmouth141671327-149


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