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Brentford logo
Championship | Gameweek 17
Dec 9, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Griffin Park
Derby logo

Brentford
0 - 0
Derby


Dalsgaard (55'), Dasilva (90+1')
FT

Shinnie (41')

Preview: Brentford vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Championship clash between Brentford and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Derby County make the trip to promotion-chasing Brentford on Wednesday evening on the back of a much-needed victory over Millwall.

Meanwhile, the Bees head into Wednesday's encounter at their new ground having put together a nine-match unbeaten streak in the Championship.


Match preview

Brentford manager Thomas Frank pictured on November 7, 2020© Reuters

Having avoided defeat since October 24, you would be forgiven for thinking that Thomas Frank and his Brentford squad will be full of smiles when heading into training this week.

However, a 2-2 draw at home to Blackburn Rovers, opposition who played with 10 men from the 36th minute, has left the Bees with a feeling of underachievement, both in the short and long term.

As well as dealing with the disappointment of Saturday's result, Brentford have barely moved up the standings with a nine-match unbeaten run which has included just four wins.

While just a four-point gap separates the London outfit and leaders Norwich City, Frank requires something extra from his side, particularly in the final third of the pitch.

Overcoming Derby would represent a fourth win in five outings, and there is a feeling that is what is required to keep the team heading in the right direction.

The Rams make their second trip to London in quick succession after battling their way to a narrow triumph over Millwall at the weekend.

Jason Knight's second-half goal gave Wayne Rooney his first win as a manager, and the England legend would have been even more satisfied with his side keeping a rare clean sheet.

Although Rooney will not get carried away with the success at The Den, the result moves Derby to within two points of 20th position, lofty heights when considering that they have spent almost the entire season in the bottom three.

Rooney will be realistic about his team's chances on Wednesday night, but being clear underdogs may suit a team who are looking to play with more freedom under their new interim boss.

Brentford Championship form: DDWWWD

Derby County Championship form: LLLDDW


Team News

Derby County's Wayne Rooney pictured in October 2020© Reuters

The extra day of recovery may lead to Rooney naming an unchanged Derby XI for this game.

However, Max Bird and Martyn Waghorn are both pushing for a chance after making an impact off the substitutes' bench against Millwall.

Brentford boss Frank will likely hand a recall to Bryan Mbuemo, potentially in place of Marcus Forss.

Emiliano Marcondes is also in contention for a starting spot, but Christian Norgaard remains absent through injury.

Brentford possible starting lineup:
Raya; Dalsgaard, Pinnock, Jansson, Henry; Dasilva, Jensen, Janelt; Canos, Toney, Mbuemo

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; Byrne, Davies, Clarke, Forsyth; Bird, Bielik; Jozwiak, Knight, Waghorn; Kazim-Richards


SM words green background

We say: Brentford 3-1 Derby County

While Derby will undoubtedly be on a high after their success at the weekend, Brentford will be motivated to put things right after dropping two points against Blackburn. With that in mind, expect the Bees to be more ruthless than in previous games, particularly against opponents who may set up looking for a draw.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 52.91%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Brentford vs Derby

Brentford
68.7%
Draw
21.5%
Derby County
9.8%
163
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Brentford manager Thomas Frank pictured on November 7, 2020
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1695226121432
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
19Plymouth ArgylePlymouth164571728-1117
20Preston North EndPreston163761624-816
21Cardiff CityCardiff164481524-916
22Hull City163671621-515
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR161871326-1311


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