Coventry City and Derby County square off in the FA Cup third round with both clubs having experienced contrasting fortunes in the Championship this season.
The Sky Blues were pushing for promotion until a recent drop off in form, while Derby have moved to within 11 points of safety courtesy of a four-game unbeaten streak.
Match preview
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If Wayne Rooney had his choice, Derby would be continuing with Championship action this weekend after generating some much-needed momentum over recent games.
Nevertheless, given the club's financial situation, there is an argument that his squad will be equally motivated to try to put together a cup run to complement their efforts in the Championship.
Derby's situation still looks bleak - they remain without an owner and are 11 points away from safety in the second tier - but the manner in which they have accumulated 10 points from a possible 12 makes them tough opponents for any team below the Premier League.
They had been on course to suffer a potentially-pivotal 2-0 defeat to Reading on Monday until they dramatically salvaged the situation, netting in the 86th and 91st-minute respectively.
Colin Kazim-Richards scored for the third match in succession, his only three efforts in the league all season, and he will be confident of extending that run at the weekend if selected.
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Derby claimed a late point when these two clubs met at the Ricoh Arena in October, with Coventry not being the same side since they started to struggle for wins during that month.
Just two triumphs have come from their last 12 games, and Mark Robins's team head into Saturday's encounter having failed to post maximum points since November 6.
Postponements have not helped matters over the Christmas and New Year period, but the Sky Blues are only outsiders for the playoffs now that they sit six points adrift of the top six.
These two clubs have not squared off in the FA Cup since 1998, Coventry emerging victorious by a 2-0 scoreline on that occasion when both teams were in the Premier League.
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Team News
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With Coventry playing just one match since December 11, Robins will not feel inclined to make widespread changes to his starting lineup.
Much of the team which featured during the 1-0 defeat to Millwall should play here, with Jamie Allen and Viktor Gyokeres most likely to be handed a recall.
In sharp contrast, Derby played a full schedule over Christmas and New Year, potentially leading to Rooney making several changes to his team.
Richard Stearman could replace fellow veteran Curtis Davies, while Ravel Morrison may get the nod over Tom Lawrence.
Goalkeeper Kelle Roos and Kazim-Richards could also come into the team, with Festy Ebosele an alternative in one of the wide positions.
Coventry City possible starting lineup:
Wilson; Hyam, McFadzean, Rose; Kane, Allen, Sheaf, Maatsen; O'Hare; Godden, Gyokeres
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Ebosele, Jagielka, Stearman, Forsyth; Jozwiak, Bird, Thompson, Knight; Morrison; Plange
We say: Coventry City 1-2 Derby County
Despite their attentions being elsewhere, both teams will want to make progress in this competition. With no replays during the third round, there will be a desire to get things done in 90 minutes, but we are backing the visitors to prevail after extra time.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 47.2%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.5%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Coventry City in this match.
