Defensa y Justicia will go for their first win in the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday when they host Universitario on matchday two at Norberto "Tito" Tomaghello Stadium.
The Argentine side drew 1-1 with Independiente del Valle in their opening match of this competition, while Universitario conceded late in injury time in their opening 3-2 loss against the defending champions Palmeiras.
Match preview
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The opening match of this competition was a familiar feeling for Defensa, scoring early but failing to hold on to their advantage.
That is something manager Sebastian Beccacece has become used to seeing this season, as his team have scored eight times in the opening half hour of their 10 league games so far but have failed to win their last three league fixtures when scoring first.
They kept the lead in their first match of this tournament for only 21 minutes.
Still, they will consider themselves fortunate to come away with a point given that they fired only one shot on goal and had a mere 21% possession against Independiente del Valle.
As bad as it looked at times, it is an improvement from 2020 when they lost their two opening games in this competition.
Beccacece will be happy to know his team were able to get a result away from home, something they have struggled to do domestically, having earned only one point in their five leagues matches on the road.
Universitario are hoping to shake off their opening match loss to Palmeiras, where they gave up the winning goal in the 95th minute despite having a man advantage for the final 30 plus minutes of the match.
Angel Comizzo will hope that a change of scenery can reverse their fortunes as they are yet to win at home in 2021.
The reigning Fase 1 champions in Peru have rarely made it this far into this tournament, and when they have, they have shown they are not up to the challenge.
Before this season, the last time they made the group stage of the Copa Libertadores was in 2014, when they finished with only one point in their six matches.
They have not won a group stage match in this competition since 2010, when they advanced to the knockout stage before losing in a shootout to Sao Paulo.
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Team News
Defensa striker Braian Romero missed their opening match through suspension and will look to score his first goal of this tournament after leading the team with three goals in the group stage last season.
Marcelo Benitez tallied once in this competition in 2020 and would like to notch another on Wednesday, having not scored since March 28.
Universitario goalkeeper Aamet Calderon will likely miss the rest of the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon, while striker Alexander Succar had surgery on his Achilles tendon last month and will not be playing anytime soon.
Defender Ivan Santillan will likely miss his seventh consecutive match because of a knee injury.
In their opening match of this competition, Enzo Gutierrez got his first two goals of the season three minutes apart, and he would love to do it again in Argentina, where he was born.
Defensa y Justicia possible starting lineup:
Unsain; Gallardo, Parades, Meza, Benitez; Fernandez, Loaiza; Pizzini, Bou, Merentiel; Romero
Universitario possible starting lineup:
Carvallo; Corzo, Alonso, Quina, Chavez; Alfageme, Torres; Quintero, Novick, Urruti; Gutierrez
We say: Defensa y Justicia 1-1 Universitario
Defensa have failed to win their last four matches at home, including a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal Sarandi in the Primera Division on Sunday, while Universitario have earned all of their points (4) in league play on the road.
Expect a tight game between two teams eager to keep pace with Palmeiras, although neither side have been particularly impressive in their recent domestic games.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 45.61%. A win for Universitario had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Universitario win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
