The New England Revolution can move a step closer to history on Wednesday when they visit Audi Field to face DC United.
With 66 points this year, the Supporters' Shield leaders need two wins from their final four games to tie the regular-season points record set by Los Angeles FC in 2019, while the Black-and-Red are only a point above the playoff line at the moment, following a 0-0 draw with Nashville SC.
Match preview
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In recent weeks, one of the most potent attacking sides in the Eastern Conference have cooled off, with DC now winless in back-to-back encounters.
Hernan Losada saw his side play with a little more desperation than they showed against Orlando City, but ultimately, they could not find a way past a well-organized Nashville defence.
Coming into October, this team were in the conversation for a home playoff berth, with Losada's name also being mentioned as a Coach of the Year candidate, but at the moment the Argentine and his team have other things to concern themselves with.
They have five games remaining, three of which are at home, and putting together a string of victories now should be enough to get them back into the postseason after missing out in 2020.
Getting into a top-seven position, though, will not be easy, as they will travel to the Bronx following this match to battle New York City FC before facing the New York Red Bulls at home next Wednesday, two sides who are only a point behind DC in the standings right now, so those are pivotal games in their quest for a playoff spot.
A win at home to the Revs would bury a lot of bad memories for the Black-and-Red, as they have not beaten New England since 2018, losing their last five matchups against them, including two this year.
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They continue to earn points, but you know that Bruce Arena and New England were disappointed to squander their late 2-1 lead to the Chicago Fire on Saturday.
The Revs now have points in seven successive fixtures, while they are assured of first place in the Eastern Conference, which means a first-round bye in the playoffs, and their lead over the Seattle Sounders for the Supporters' Shield is now at nine points.
If this team can avoid defeat in at least two of their final four fixtures, it would set a new club record for the fewest losses in the regular season, as they currently have four this year, while their all-time record of seven took place in their 2005 campaign.
With so many weapons and a ton of speed and quality all over the field, this team have been a nightmare to defend, scoring multiple goals in four straight games while creating plenty of quality scoring chances, with 30 shots on target in their previous five matches.
While they create their fair share of opportunities, their style of play can leave them vulnerable in transition as New England have conceded a lot of scoring chances in recent weeks, allowing 25 shots on goal in their last four games.
New England are winners of three straight away from home, scoring eight goals over that stretch with their next two games on the road before finishing the regular season with a pair of matches at Gillette Stadium.
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Team News
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Veteran goalkeeper Bill Hamid recorded his 77th career shutout over the weekend, as the DC shot-stopper passed Zach Thornton for sixth all-time in MLS clean sheets, making two saves versus the Black-and-Gold.
Adrien Perez made his first appearance on Saturday since the middle of July, Drew Skundrich was on the matchday roster for the first time since September and Ramon Abila earned his first cap since September 15, coming on as a late second-half substitute, replacing Junior Moreno.
Brendan Hines-Ike is out with a hip injury, Paul Arriola has a groin strain, Yordy Reyna is nursing a quad issue and Edison Flores could miss this game with a calf problem.
Revs striker Gustavo Bou scored his team-leading 14th of the year on Saturday, putting him three back of DC's Ola Kamara in the Golden Boot race, while Carles Gil collected his league-leading 17th assist on that play to go along with his 100 key passes which is also the best in MLS.
Matt Turner has yet to lose at Gillette Stadium this year, as the American goalkeeper made three saves against Chicago, while Emmanuel Boateng was precise in his passing, with 14 of 16 pass completions and creating a pair of goalscoring opportunities in only 22 minutes of action.
Wilfrid Kaptoum scored his first of the season this past weekend, while Adam Buksa returned from international duty with Poland, firing a team-high three shots on target, and if he can fire three more in this one, he would reach 100 for the year while five more shots would set a new single-season club record, which is currently held by Wolde Harris.
DC United possible starting lineup:
Hamid; Odoi-Atsem, Birnbaum, Pines, Alfaro; Gressel, Skundrich, Moreno, Paredes, Robertha; Kamara
New England Revolution possible starting lineup:
Turner; Bye, Farrell, Kessler, Boateng; Kaptoum, Polster, Buchanan; Gil; Bou, Buksa
We say: DC United 2-3 New England Revolution
This is a matchup of two teams who are extremely dangerous in the final third but who each tend to allow a lot of space in transition, and given the quality of players on the field, we should see both teams bury their opportunities.
DC will wish that the Revs did not have anything to play for, but unfortunately for them, the MLS points record is still within New England's reach, so expect to see the Revs find a way to come out on top once again.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 50.25%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 26.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.57%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
