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Crotone logo
Serie A | Gameweek 38
May 22, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Ezio Scida
Fiorentina logo

Crotone
0 - 0
Fiorentina


Djidji (44'), Zanellato (83')
FT

Pulgar (25'), Castrovilli (44')

Preview: Crotone vs. Fiorentina - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Crotone and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Relegated Crotone host their final Serie A fixture before returning to the second tier on Saturday evening, as they welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Ezio Scida.

With the visitors' coach also set to say farewell, after preventing them joining their hosts in Serie B next season, La Viola will hope to send Beppe Iachini off with a win.


Match preview

Fiorentina head coach Giuseppe Iachini pictured in September 2020© Reuters

Fiorentina's loss to top-four contenders Napoli, last weekend, brought to an end a late-season run of five games unbeaten which effectively secured their top-flight status: mission accomplished for returning manager Beppe Iachini.

Nonetheless, a 2-0 home defeat to the Neapolitan side - who also hit the Viola's woodwork twice - was a disappointing end to a relatively adequate season at their Stadio Artemio Franchi headquarters.

Having fared quite well on home turf, it has undoubtedly been Fiorentina's record on the road - where they are ranked 17th of 20 Serie A clubs heading into the final weekend - that has undermined efforts to sneak into the top half of the table.

Starting this Saturday in 13th place in the standings, Iachini's men could yet finish as low as 16th, though their cap-wearing coach will at least conclude his most recent spell as manager in mid-table mediocrity rather than a desperate scrap for survival.

Heavily indebted to star striker Dusan Vlahovic for firing them to safety - the highly-regarded Serbia international bagged his 20th and 21st league goals of 2020-21 in a vital win over Lazio recently - the Viola are likely to use the proceeds of a post-season auction for the young forward's services to rebuild an ill-balanced, ageing squad.

Just who will take the reins at the Franchi this summer remains to be seen, with names such as Gennaro Gattuso, Vincenzo Italiano and Sergio Conceicao all being linked with the post of late.

First, though, Fiorentina will want to win for only the fourth time outside Florence this term and avoid ending a season with fewer than 40 points for the first time in 20 years.

Crotone coach Serse Cosmi on May 1, 2021© Reuters

Crotone coach Serse Cosmi this week spoke of his pride that his team have gone down with a fight, despite their battle to evade the drop looking like a hopeless cause for several weeks now.

Even after their demotion to Serie B was decided last month, the Squali have gamely contested the majority of their remaining fixtures - picking up two wins and a draw from their five most recent outings to move above Parma and off the foot of the table.

Last time out, they stole a point from one of the sides that came up with them just last summer - but are also now set to return to the second tier - after Benevento had led for most of last Sunday's match, once Crotone had defender Vladimir Golemic sent off in the first half. A revelation this season, top scorer Simy salvaged a point; notching his 20th goal of the campaign to equalise in the dying moments.

In the process, the Nigeria international became just the second player to reach such a milestone for any relegated team in Serie A history - and the first since Igor Protti's haul of 24 for Bari, back in 1995-96.

Though the futures of both Cosmi and his star striker remain the source of conjecture going into Crotone's final top-flight game for at least a year, the pair will certainly hope to engineer one final flourish on Saturday.

However, even with home advantage, Fiorentina are a club against whom the Calabrians have generally struggled: Crotone have never kept a clean sheet against them in the league and their only top-tier win against the Tuscan outfit came four years ago. Furthermore, the Squali have conceded an eye-watering 92 goals in the league to date - a defensive fragility that they must remedy if they are to push for promotion next term.

Crotone Serie A form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D

Fiorentina Serie A form:
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L



Team News

Fiorentina's Franck Ribery celebrates scoring their second goal on March 21, 2021© Reuters

Despite the defeat to Napoli last time out, Beppe Iachini is expected to name a virtually unchanged Fiorentina team for his final game at the helm.

Even if young striker Christian Kouame has drawn interest from several other clubs around Europe, the familiar forward partnership of Franck Ribery and Dusan Vlahovic are set to start up front.

Named in Italy manager Roberto Mancini's provisional Euros squad during the week, Gaetano Castrovilli should again be preferred to Sofyan Amrabat in midfield, as the Morocco international is still carrying a minor knock.

Meanwhile, first-choice goalkeeper Bartlomiej Dragowski was shown a red card for protesting a VAR decision last week, so Pietro Terracciano keeps his place - having previously covered for his colleague's absence due to a thigh injury.

Home coach Serse Cosmi, on the other hand, will make changes by necessity. Central defenders Vladimir Golemic and Lisandro Magallan are both unavailable as they are suspended, so Kofi Djidji, Luca Marrone and Sebastiano Luperto - who rejoined full training late in the week - should make up the back three on Saturday.

Having excelled in the backs-to-the-wall draw against Benevento, back-up goalkeeper Marco Festa will hope to start ahead of Alex Cordaz again, but may have to make do with a place on the bench.

Linked with a move elsewhere in Serie A, wing-back Arkadiusz Reca (on loan from Atalanta) is expected to miss out with a knee injury once again - Salvatore Molina or Pedro Pereira should therefore start.

Crotone possible starting lineup:
Cordaz; Djidji, Marrone, Luperto; Rispoli, Benali, Cigarini, Messias, Molina; Ounas, Simy

Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Milenkovic, Pezzella, Martinez Quarta; Venuti, Bonaventura, Castrovilli, Pulgar, Biraghi; Ribery, Vlahovic


SM words green background

We say: Crotone 2-2 Fiorentina

Fiorentina may have drawn a blank in consecutive weeks, but they possess at least enough firepower to breach a flimsy, absence-hit Crotone rearguard more than once on Saturday.

The hosts are going down swinging, however, and can add one final point to their meagre tally before heading back to Serie B.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 44.14%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 30.88% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Crotone win was 1-0 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Crotone vs Fiorentina

Crotone
33.3%
Draw
12.8%
Fiorentina
53.8%
39
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