Copa Libertadores | Third Round | 2nd Leg

Mar 16, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Medellin
2 - 0
Magallanes

(Independiente Medellin win 3-1 on aggregate)

Pons (15', 39')
Valencia (25'), Cadavid (45+1'), Pons (65'), Palacios (79')
Palacios (85')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Pinero (7'), Flores (46'), Berardo (82')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Third Round clash between Independiente Medellin and Magallanes.

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente Medellin

Last Game: Magallanes 1-1 Medellin
Wednesday, March 8 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Magallanes

Last Game: Magallanes 1-1 Medellin
Wednesday, March 8 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Magallanes had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Magallanes win was 0-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente Medellin would win this match.

Result
Independiente Medellin	Draw	Magallanes
48.32% ( -0.17)	25.32% ( -0)	26.36% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 52.09% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.03% (

0.14)

50.97% (

-0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.16% (

0.12)

72.84% (

-0.13)

Independiente Medellin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.89% (

-0.02)

21.11% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.05% (

-0.03)

53.95% (

0.02)

Magallanes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.03% (

0.22)

33.97% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.35% (

0.23)

70.65% (

-0.23)

Score Analysis

Independiente Medellin 48.31%

Magallanes 26.36%

Draw 25.32%

Independiente Medellin	Draw	Magallanes
1-0 @ 11.15% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.68% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 4.86% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.89% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0) Other @ 2.49% Total : 48.31%	1-1 @ 12.04% 0-0 @ 7.17% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.32%	0-1 @ 7.74% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.28% Total : 26.36%