Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 50.4%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Ponte Preta had a probability of 23.12%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%), while for a Ponte Preta win it was 0-1 (8.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.