After an enthralling first leg last week, Club Libertad welcome Atletico Junior to Paraguay on Thursday in the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana round-of-16 tie.
In an eye-catching encounter, Libertad picked up a 4-3 victory in the away leg and will look to complete the job to see them through to the quarter-finals.
Match preview
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Club Libertad cruised through the Copa Sudamericana group stage, qualifying as the winners of their group with 14 points from their six games.
They finished with wins over Newell's and Palestino and a draw with Atletico Goianiense to see them fend off the Brazilian side and secure the only qualification spot in the group.
The first-placed finish saw Libertad handed a tough draw against Junior, but they took the challenge in their stride, quickly taking a 2-1 lead through a Hector Villalba brace after Carmelo Valencia had put the hosts ahead inside the first five minutes.
Junior would retake the lead thanks to goals from Marlon Piedrahita and Fredy Hinestroza, but Julio Enciso drew the Paraguayan side level before Hugo Martinez netted the winner to give his side a crucial advantage going into the home leg.
They will now look to fend off Junior and will surely fight desperately to avoid the deficit being overturned, although that will be no easy task with the visitors not ready to let go of continental football for the season just yet.
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Junior were one of the sides to narrowly miss out on qualifying for the Copa Libertadores knockout stage, having fallen short by just two points in their pursuit of second place.
That was despite them losing just one of their six group games, with their commendable tally of seven points still not enough to see them catch Argentinian giants River Plate.
However, that was enough to see them pip Santa Fe to third place, allowing for them to enter the Copa Sudamericana at the round of 16.
Their entry into the tournament did not go according to plan, though, with the 4-3 home defeat meaning they have to chase the game in Paraguay and overturn a deficit if they are to advance.
To do that, they will have to break a run of three straight defeats in all competitions, having lost recently lost 3-1 to America de Cali in disappointing fashion in the Colombian top flight.
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Team News
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The Libertad lie should be led by two players at opposite ends of their respective careers, with 17-year-old Julio Enciso likely lining up alongside Oscar Cardozo.
Winger Hector Villalba will also play a key role in the attacking line, having hit an early brace in the first leg against Junior.
At the other end of the pitch, Alexander Barboza and Cristian Baez should continue to line up at the heart of the back four.
Experienced forward Carmelo Valencia should continue to lead the Junior line, having netted an important goal in the first leg.
Wingers Fredy Hinestroza and Marlon Piedrahita each netted a goal in that leg and should continue to form important parts of the front three.
Club Libertad possible starting lineup:
Silva; Mayada, Baez, Barboza, Espinoza; Villalba, Martinez, Diaz, Merlini; Cardozo, Enciso
Aletico Junior possible starting lineup:
Viera; Pacheco, Martinez, Mera, Fuentes; Vasquez, Moreno; Piedrahita, Gonzalez, Hinestroza; Valencia
We say: Club Libertad 2-1 Atletico Junior
With a one-goal lead coming into the second leg, we fancy Thursday's opponents to get over the line and book their spot in the quarter-finals.
Libertad will undoubtedly be pushed to the edge, but the nature of the game will mean they have plenty of chances to hit Junior on the break, and we fancy the hosts to put their visitors to the sword with another win.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 44.74%. A win for Atletico Junior had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.14%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Atletico Junior win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
