High-flying Flamengo travel to face bottom-of-the-table Chapecoense at the Arena Conda in Brasileiro action on Monday evening.
The hosts are winless in almost two months whilst their upcoming opponents have recovered from a blip and are looking to close the gap to Atletico Mineiro at the summit.
Match preview
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Whilst the fact that Chapecoense are on a run of 10 games without a win does not look especially great, things get far worse when you discover that the most recent victory - 2-1 away at Bragantino in early September - was, in fact, the only one of the season, which is 30 games old now.
Chape have won one, drawn 11 and lost 18 of those games to sit on just 14 points, 12 behind Gremio in 19th and 19 points from safety.
With just eight games remaining, and thus 24 points available, their relegation could well go from inevitable to confirmed by the final whistle if they lose to Flamengo and 16th-placed Bahia can beat Sao Paulo.
The silver lining for Felipe Paiva Endres is that his side have often played well against Serie A's best clubs - drawing with league leaders Atletico Mineiro in early October, narrowly losing 2-1 to Fortaleza and beating fourth-placed Bragantino, as mentioned above, thanks to an injury-time strike from Anselmo Ramon.
They are effectively now playing solely for pride, but do not totally count the hosts out of this one.
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A disappointing second half of October saw defending two-time champions Flamengo fall away from Atletico Mineiro at the top of the table, with a draw against midtable Cuiaba being followed up by a loss to Fluminense, during a time when they were also knocked out of the Copa do Brasil.
Their 1-0 win at home to the league leaders, courtesy of a 25th-minute Michael goal, was the perfect way to bounce back, however, and kept their hopes of defending their title alive.
A disappointing 2-2 draw with Athletico Paranaense - having stormed into a two-goal lead inside half an hour before ultimately conceding a 90th-minute equaliser - saw them briefly drop to third, but they have reclaimed second place thanks to a 2-0 win over Atletico Goianiense on Friday night, with Michael grabbing a brace to continue his strong goalscoring form.
Another victory on Monday will see them cut Mineiro's lead to six points and, with nine games remaining, that gap to the top will start to look less insurmountable.
This side are one of the most dangerous in Brazil when they press and play aggressively, and shutting them down completely for 90 minutes will be a very tall order for lowly Chape - a side who the visitors have beaten on each of their four previous encounters.
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Team News
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Chapecoense's tough season has not been helped by their extensive injury list, with no fewer than nine players currently sidelined by injury.
Amongst the most damaging are goalkeeper Vagner, who is out with a ruptured knee ligament, and forwards Perotti and Bruno Silva, who are nearing returns from their thigh injuries but look unlikely to make it back for this game.
Flamengo have a few problems of their own, with Manchester United loanee Andreas Pereira suspended for an accumulation of yellow cards and Chelsea loanee Kenedy sidelined with an ankle injury.
He is one of five players out through injury, including another former Chelsea man in Filipe Luis, who looks set to be out for another couple of weeks with a calf issue.
Michael's two goals against Goianiense moved him to joint-top scorer, alongside Bruno Henrique on nine goals, and the 5ft 5in forward will surely remain in the starting XI on Monday.
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Keiller; Derlan, Joilson, Ezequiel, Ribeiro, Laercio; Denner, Ronei, Leite; Rodriguinho, Mike
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Ramon, Luiz, G. Henrique, Rodinei; Michael, Arao, Maia, Ribeiro; Vintho, Barbosa
We say: Chapecoense 1-2 Flamengo
Whilst the hosts do have a surprisingly good record against top teams this campaign, their performances in recent games cannot be ignored and Flamengo have too much at stake here, so we are backing an away win, albeit a narrower one than some may expect.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 59.73%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 18.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.61%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.49%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 1-0 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
