Bristol City1 - 0Derby
Form, Standings, Stats
Wednesday, January 1 at 12.30pm in Championship
for
Wednesday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
for
We said: Bristol City 2-0 Derby County
Bristol City have won three of their last four matches at Ashton Gate, and we think that they will make full use of home advantage to take three points off a Derby side that have lost three of their previous four games in the Championship. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol City win with a probability of 57.13%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 18.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bristol City win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.69%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bristol City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Bristol City.
| Result | ||
| Bristol City | Draw | Derby County |
57.13% ( -0.98) | 24.61% ( 0.3) | 18.26% ( 0.67) |
| Both teams to score 44.27% ( 0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.81% ( -0.21) | 56.19% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.75% ( -0.17) | 77.25% ( 0.17) |
| Bristol City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.41% ( -0.46) | 19.59% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.47% ( -0.75) | 51.53% ( 0.74) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.05% ( 0.7) | 44.94% ( -0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 19.11% ( 0.55) | 80.89% ( -0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bristol City | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 14.35% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 11.69% ( -0.25)2-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.36% ( -0.23)3-1 @ 5.08% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 2.07% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.58% Total : 57.12% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 8.81% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.59% Total : 24.6% | 0-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 4.59% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.59% Total : 18.26% |
