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Championship | Gameweek 38
Mar 16, 2024 at 3pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
Watford logo

Birmingham
0 - 1
Watford

FT(HT: 0-1)
Dennis (44')
Chakvetadze (68'), Asprilla (88'), Bachmann (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Birmingham City and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Birmingham 0-1 Middlesbrough
Tuesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Watford 1-2 Coventry
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Birmingham City 1-1 Watford

Birmingham's performance against Middlesbrough was highly concerning, but we reckon that a change of style could help Blues towards earning a result on Saturday. Watford will be hoping for a new manager bounce in the Second City, but we feel that Cleverley will have to wait for his maiden victory as a manager. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 41.38%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 32.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Watford in this match.

Result
Birmingham CityDrawWatford
32.47% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03) 26.14% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 41.38% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Both teams to score 53.03% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.61% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)51.39% (0.032000000000004 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.79% (-0.029999999999998 -0.03)73.2% (0.027999999999992 0.03)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.28% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)29.71% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.22% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)65.77% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.45%24.55% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.97%59.02% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Score Analysis
    Birmingham City 32.47%
    Watford 41.38%
    Draw 26.14%
Birmingham CityDrawWatford
1-0 @ 8.85% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-1 @ 7.54% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.37% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-1 @ 3.05% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.17% (-0.004 -0)
3-2 @ 2.14% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 0.93% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 32.47%
1-1 @ 12.43%
0-0 @ 7.29% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.3% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.14%
0-1 @ 10.24% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.73% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-2 @ 7.19% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 4.09% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-3 @ 3.37% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 2.48% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
1-4 @ 1.44%
0-4 @ 1.18% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 41.38%

How you voted: Birmingham vs Watford

Birmingham City
38.1%
Draw
40.5%
Watford
21.4%
42
Head to Head
Sep 16, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 6
Watford
2-0
Birmingham
Rajovic (90+1'), Andrews (90+6')
Hoedt (55')

Drameh (5'), Buchanan (35'), Bielik (38'), Stansfield (57'), Sunjic (60'), Longelo (90+3')
Buchanan (88')
Mar 14, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 37
Watford
3-0
Birmingham
Louza (6'), Davis (16'), Assombalonga (74')
Aug 16, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Birmingham
1-1
Watford
Hall (19')
Sanderson (81')
Sema (63')
Choudhury (45+3')
Mar 20, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 38
Watford
3-0
Birmingham
Sema (4'), Chalobah (55'), Gray (80')
Success (44')

Pedersen (35')
Dec 12, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 18
Birmingham
0-1
Watford

Kieftenbeld (15'), Pedersen (57')
Pedersen (84')
Deeney (85' pen.)
Capoue (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland139222391429
2Leeds UnitedLeeds137512281426
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd138321661025
4Burnley136521761123
5Watford137152221122
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom13562148621
7Millwall135441612419
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn135441614219
9Bristol City134721717019
10Norwich CityNorwich134632318518
11Middlesbrough135351415-118
12Swansea CitySwansea13445109116
13Coventry CityCoventry134361717015
14Derby CountyDerby134361617-115
15Hull City133641517-215
16Stoke CityStoke134361518-315
17Cardiff CityCardiff134361319-615
18Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds134361524-915
19Oxford UnitedOxford Utd133551617-114
20Preston North EndPreston133551420-614
21Luton TownLuton133371521-612
22Plymouth ArgylePlymouth133371325-1212
23Queens Park RangersQPR131751119-810
24Portsmouth131661326-139


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