Champions League

Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Aug 3, 2022 at 5pm UK

Groupama Aréna

Qarabag FK
1 - 1
Ferencvaros

(Qarabag FK win 4-2 on aggregate)

Kwabena (34')
Jankovic (28'), Mustafazada (66')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Boli (17')
Botka (61'), Kovacevic (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Qarabag FK and Ferencvaros, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

Last Game: FC Zurich 2-2 Qarabag FK
Wednesday, July 27 at 6pm in Champions League

Ferencvaros

Last Game: Slovan Bratislava 1-4 Ferencvaros
Wednesday, July 27 at 7.30pm in Champions League

We said: Qarabag FK 1-1 Ferencvaros

Both managers would view a draw as a respectable result in the first leg, and we are struggling to separate the two sides here. Ferencvaros were excellent in the second leg against Zurich last time out and will fancy their chances of avoiding a first-leg defeat on Wednesday night. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 43.06%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.62%) and 0-2 (5.77%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Qarabag FK	Draw	Ferencvaros
33.93% ( -0.42)	23% ( 0.02)	43.06% ( 0.4)

Both teams to score 64.59% (

-0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.46% (

-0.21)

36.54% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.31% (

-0.23)

58.69% (

0.23)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.28% (

-0.31)

21.71% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.12% (

-0.48)

54.87% (

0.49)

Ferencvaros Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.5% (

0.08)

17.49% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.01% (

0.13)

47.99% (

-0.13)

Score Analysis

Qarabag FK 33.93%

Ferencvaros 43.06%

Draw 23%

Qarabag FK	Draw	Ferencvaros
2-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 5.8% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.93% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.56% Total : 33.93%	1-1 @ 10.11% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.73% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.8% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.37% Total : 23%	1-2 @ 8.82% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 5.12% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 3.91% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.35% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 2.23% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.71% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.46% ( 0.03) Other @ 4.06% Total : 43.06%