MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 23:35:49| >> :600:418091:418091:
Europa Conference League header WWW

UEFA Conference League
Marseille
Conference League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 17, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Qarabag

Marseille
3 - 1
Qarabag FK

Milik (41', 44'), Payet (90+2')
Under (36'), Peres (66'), Dieng (77')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Kady (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Marseille and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Marseille 2-0 Qarabag FK

 We see Marseille as a far stronger side than their Azerbaijani visitors, and, with home advantage and given their recent form, we do not expect them to face many problems in their bid to take a lead into the second leg. Should, at least, a combination of them be deployed, the likes of Payet, Milik and Bakambu boast the ability to put the relative European minnows to the sword in France. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 15.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawQarabag FK
59.87%24.6%15.53%
Both teams to score 39.54%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.24%59.75%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.95%80.05%
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.08%19.91%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.94%52.05%
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.37%50.62%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.91%85.08%
Score Analysis
    Marseille 59.86%
    Qarabag FK 15.53%
    Draw 24.59%
MarseilleDrawQarabag FK
1-0 @ 16.26%
2-0 @ 13.12%
2-1 @ 8.94%
3-0 @ 7.06%
3-1 @ 4.81%
4-0 @ 2.85%
4-1 @ 1.94%
3-2 @ 1.64%
5-0 @ 0.92%
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 59.86%
1-1 @ 11.07%
0-0 @ 10.08%
2-2 @ 3.04%
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 24.59%
0-1 @ 6.86%
1-2 @ 3.77%
0-2 @ 2.34%
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 15.53%

How you voted: Marseille vs Qarabag FK

Marseille
85.2%
Draw
7.4%
Qarabag FK
7.4%
81
rhs 2.0
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