Cardiff City will be looking to put their disappointing South Wales derby defeat behind them when they take on Birmingham City on Wednesday evening.

The Bluebirds had been on a great run prior to losing 2-0 to their bitter rivals, while Birmingham also saw an upturn in form come to an end last time out with defeat to Watford.

Match preview

Cardiff manager Neil Harris licks his lips on February 15, 2020 © Reuters

Saturday's defeat to Swansea was Cardiff's fourth loss on home soil this term, which is already one more than they lost in each of their previous two seasons at this level.

Jamal Lowe struck twice at the Cardiff City Stadium, either side of Joe Ralls's red card, to bring an end to Cardiff's four match winning run.

That return of 12 points from 12 had lifted the Bluebirds right back into promotion contention, but they are now five points off the top six heading into the midweek fixtures.

With two members of the top six to come over the fortnight - a trip to Norwich City followed by the visit of Brentford - Cardiff need to quickly pick themselves up.

This may well be just the fixture for the Bluebirds to do exactly that as they have won five of their last seven home league matches against Birmingham, drawing the other two.

Birmingham City manager Aitor Karanka pictured on October 4, 2020 © Reuters

In fact, the Blues have won only two of their last 15 league meetings with Cardiff, while boss Aitor Karanka has lost on his last two visits to the Welsh capital.

Birmingham suffered a 1-0 loss to Watford last time out through Troy Deeney's late penalty in a match devoid of any real action until that point.

Karanka conceded after the match that his side are making too many sloppy errors, such as the one to give away the spot kick, with his side now down in 16th place.

The Blues have defeated Bristol City and Reading in their last two away games, though, and they are unbeaten in their last six matches away from St Andrew's.

Cardiff City Championship form: LWWWWL

Birmingham City Championship form: DDLWWL

Team News

Wales striker Kieffer Moore in action against Finland in the UEFA Nations League on September 3, 2020 © Reuters

Neil Harris had understandably been reluctant to rotate his side on the back of a positive run heading into the Swansea game, but that will surely now change.

Cardiff will be forced into making at least one alteration due to Ralls's suspension, with Marlon Pack the favourite to come into central midfield.

Kieffer Moore has scored eight league goals this term but sustained a knock last time out, so Robert Glatzel is in line for a start up top.

As for Birmingham, Jake Clarke-Salter is expected to get the nod at left back as Kristian Pedersen is suspended.

Jeremie Bela has also been ruled out through injury, but Karanka otherwise has a fully-fit squad to choose from.

Jon Toral and Maxime Colin will be hoping for recalls on the back of the narrow defeat to Watford.

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Bacuna, Morrison, Nelson, Bennett; Wilson, Vaulks, Pack, Ojo; Glatzel, Harris

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Roberts, Dean, Clarke-Salter; Kieftenbeld, Sunjic; Sanchez, Toral, Leko; Hogan

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We say: Cardiff City 1-1 Birmingham City

Cardiff had an off-day against Swansea and will know the importance of quickly hitting back if they are to compete their playoff aspirations alive.

Birmingham may also have tasted defeat last time out, but they have a good away record and will be confident of taking a point back to the West Midlands.

Top betting tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 44.06%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 27.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.92%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.