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Burnley logo
Premier League | Gameweek 34
May 3, 2021 at 8.15pm UK
Turf Moor
West Ham logo

Burnley
1 - 2
West Ham

Wood (19' pen.)
Mee (85'), Berg Gudmundsson (87')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Antonio (21', 29')
Dawson (86')

Preview: Burnley vs. West Ham United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Premier League clash between Burnley and West Ham United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two sides pining for three points at opposite ends of the Premier League table prepare for battle at Turf Moor on Monday night as Burnley play host to top-four chasing West Ham United.

Sean Dyche's men boosted their survival hopes with a 4-0 thrashing of Wolverhampton Wanderers last time out, while West Ham's Champions League hopes were dealt a blow with a 1-0 defeat to Chelsea.


Match preview

Burnley manager Sean Dyche pictured on April 25, 2021© Reuters

Chris Wood came, saw and conquered at Molineux last Sunday, as the New Zealand international took just 44 minutes to notch up a delightful hat-trick and set Burnley on their way to a resounding success against a lacklustre Wolves.

Wood then turned provider for Ashley Westwood to fire home Burnley's fourth from the edge of the area in the 85th minute, and that 4-0 victory was the perfect way for Dyche's men to respond to three previous defeats since the start of April.

The Clarets currently find themselves 15th in the table - nine points clear of the bottom three with just five games left to go - although that could all change with the weekend's fixtures and they may temporarily drop to 17th if Newcastle United and Brighton & Hove Albion both prevail in their clashes.

Should Wood manage to keep his hot streak going in the month of May, Dyche should have no problem securing another stint in England's top flight for Burnley, but his immediate task will be to end the Clarets' seven-game winless run on home soil, with five of those games ending in draws.

Burnley have not gone eight games without a home victory since 1971, and they are also aiming to win back-to-back league matches for just the second time this season, but West Ham's recent dip in form offers them plenty of hope against their fellow Claret outfit.

West Ham United manager David Moyes pictured on April 24, 2021© Reuters

A farcical red card to Fabian Balbuena - which has unsurprisingly been overturned on appeal - overshadowed West Ham and Chelsea's London derby last weekend, but the damage had already been done before that comical episode as Timo Werner struck the winner in the 43rd minute.

Having also suffered a heartbreaking late defeat at Newcastle United the weekend before, David Moyes has now witnessed his top-four contenders lose back-to-back league matches for the first time since September - a crushing blow to their hopes of a surprise appearance in Europe's elite competition.

The Hammers remain firmly in contention for fourth as they occupy fifth spot in the table, but Chelsea could steer six points clear if they beat Fulham on Saturday, while Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur are both capable of leapfrogging Moyes's men before Monday rolls around.

With only one win to boast from their last five away matches - also at Wolves - West Ham and their alarming injury list must quickly turn their fortunes around lest they risk slipping out of top-four contention entirely, but they have not lost three Premier League games in a row all season.

An early strike from Michail Antonio propelled West Ham to a 1-0 win over Burnley when the sides met in the capital earlier this season, but they have tried and failed to beat Burnley three times at Turf Moor since Slaven Bilic oversaw a 2-1 victory in May 2017.

Burnley Premier League form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W

West Ham United Premier League form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L



Team News

West Ham United's Jesse Lingard celebrates scoring their first goal against Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League on April 5, 2021© Reuters

Burnley reported no fresh injury concerns from their visit to Wolves, which leaves Kevin Long and Robbie Brady - both nursing calf problems - as their only absentees for Monday's game.

Johann Berg Gudmundsson was fit enough to make the bench at Molineux, but he has very little chance of displacing Josh Brownhill or Dwight McNeil, the latter of whom set up two of Wood's strikes last weekend.

Wood has found the back of the net in all three of his Premier League appearances against West Ham at Turf Moor, and Matej Vydra, Ashley Barnes and Jay Rodriguez are all set to do battle for the chance to partner him up top.

West Ham have several more concerns on the injury front, as Declan Rice, Arthur Masuaku and Aaron Cresswell have all been ruled out by Moyes, while Antonio is a major doubt with his troublesome thigh problem.

Balbuena is available here after West Ham successfully appealed his harsh red card, but Craig Dawson returns from a ban of his own and should reclaim his rightful spot in defence.

Jesse Lingard was a doubt leading up to the Chelsea game and reports earlier in the week suggested that he could miss this game, but the Manchester United loanee is thought to be fine and will hope to continue his sensational form for the Hammers.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Lowton, Mee, Tarkowski, Taylor; Brownhill, Cork, Westwood, McNeil; Wood, Vydra

West Ham United possible starting lineup:
Fabianski; Dawson, Diop, Ogbonna; Coufal, Soucek, Noble, Fredericks; Fornals; Bowen, Lingard


SM words green background

We say: Burnley 1-2 West Ham United

West Ham's recent record against the Clarets does not make for positive reading, and Dyche's side have the wind in their sails after such a dominant showing at Molineux.

Then again, Burnley have fared much better on the road than at home this season, and Lingard's expected return to full fitness will be a huge boost for Moyes's side, so we expect them to get back on track and end their Turf Moor hoodoo this weekend.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data


Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Ham United win with a probability of 45.26%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 27.77% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a West Ham United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (8.62%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (9.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that West Ham United would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Burnley vs West Ham

Burnley
24.2%
Draw
14.8%
West Ham United
61.1%
244
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West Ham United manager David Moyes pictured on February 27, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1695226121432
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
19Plymouth ArgylePlymouth164571728-1117
20Preston North EndPreston163761624-816
21Cardiff CityCardiff164481524-916
22Hull City163671621-515
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR161871326-1311


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