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Bundesliga | Gameweek 30
Apr 20, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
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Union Berlin
1 - 5
Bayern

Vertessen (90')
Bjelica (45+1')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Goretzka (29'), Kane (45+1'), Muller (53', 66'), Tel (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions
Last Game: Augsburg 2-0 Union Berlin
Friday, April 12 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 1-0 Arsenal
Wednesday, April 17 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Union Berlin 1-3 Bayern Munich

 While the pressure is on Union Berlin to pick up precious points in a bid to avoid the drop, Bayern are merely playing for pride, but Tuchel's men remain firm favourites to come out on top this weekend. Union Berlin's goal drought will be a concern for Bjelica, but even if they are to breach Bayern's backline, we believe that the visitors will find a way to outscore their opponents en route to claiming maximum points and consolidating second spot for at least another week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 58.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 20.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 0-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.43%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Union BerlinDrawBayern Munich
20.66% (0.214 0.21) 20.83% (0.042999999999999 0.04) 58.51% (-0.252 -0.25)
Both teams to score 60.17% (0.20099999999999 0.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.94% (0.105 0.11)37.06% (-0.1 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.75% (0.11199999999999 0.11)59.25% (-0.107 -0.11)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.74% (0.262 0.26)31.26% (-0.257 -0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.38% (0.301 0.3)67.62% (-0.29600000000001 -0.3)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.54% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)12.46% (0.042 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.58% (-0.083999999999996 -0.08)38.41% (0.088000000000001 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 20.66%
    Bayern Munich 58.51%
    Draw 20.83%
Union BerlinDrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 5.48% (0.042 0.04)
1-0 @ 4.53% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.63% (0.024 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.21% (0.029 0.03)
3-1 @ 2.13% (0.031 0.03)
3-0 @ 1.02% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 20.66%
1-1 @ 9.43% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.71% (0.034 0.03)
0-0 @ 3.9% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.54% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 20.83%
1-2 @ 9.82% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 8.45% (-0.068999999999999 -0.07)
0-1 @ 8.11% (-0.052 -0.05)
1-3 @ 6.82% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-3 @ 5.87% (-0.056 -0.06)
2-3 @ 3.96% (0.018 0.02)
1-4 @ 3.55% (-0.015 -0.02)
0-4 @ 3.05% (-0.035 -0.04)
2-4 @ 2.06% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-5 @ 1.48% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-5 @ 1.27% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 4.06%
Total : 58.51%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Bayern

Union Berlin
11.4%
Draw
11.4%
Bayern Munich
77.1%
70
Head to Head
Jan 24, 2024 7.30pm
Gameweek 13
Bayern
1-0
Union Berlin
Guerreiro (46')
Sane (74'), Kane (90+5')

Behrens (48'), Haberer (90+5'), Vogt (90+5'), Leite (90+5')
Bjelica (74')
> Preview
Feb 26, 2023 4.30pm
Gameweek 22
Bayern
3-0
Union Berlin
Maxim Choupo-Moting (31'), Coman (40'), Musiala (45+1')
> Preview
Sep 3, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 5
Union Berlin
1-1
Bayern
Becker (12')
Khedira (87')
Kimmich (15')
Kimmich (26'), Gravenberch (72')
> Preview
Mar 19, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 27
Bayern
4-0
Union Berlin
Coman (16'), Kouassi (25'), Lewandowski (45+1' pen., 47')
Musiala (51'), Kouassi (74')

Baumgartl (39')
> Preview
Oct 30, 2021 2.30pm
Gameweek 10
Union Berlin
2-5
Bayern
Giesselmann (43'), Ryerson (65')
Jaeckel (15')
Lewandowski (15' pen., 23'), Sane (35'), Coman (61'), Muller (79')
Sule (30')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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