Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 11

Oct 22, 2022 at 2.30pm UK

Mage-Solar-Stadion

Freiburg
2 - 0
Werder Bremen

Kubler (56'), Grifo (80' pen.)
Hofler (42'), Eggestein (90+2')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Fullkrug (60'), Buchanan (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Werder Bremen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Freiburg 2-1 St Pauli
Wednesday, October 19 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Werder Bremen

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: SC Paderborn 2-2 Werder Bremen (5-4 pen.)
Wednesday, October 19 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Freiburg 1-2 Werder Bremen

Despite their defeat in midweek, Werder's away form paired with Freiburg's recent fall off in league results suggests we could see another win on the road for Ole Werner's side. Freiburg's standards have dropped domestically in the last month and they could surrender their top four position if they do not put that right here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 48.65%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	Werder Bremen
48.65% ( 2.61)	23.44% ( -0.44)	27.9% ( -2.17)

Both teams to score 59.56% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.29% (

0.7)

41.71% (

-0.7)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.89% (

0.71)

64.11% (

-0.7)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.67% (

1.3)

17.33% (

-1.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.29% (

2.23)

47.71% (

-2.23)

Werder Bremen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.05% (

-1.12)

27.95% (

1.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.42% (

-1.45)

63.58% (

1.45)

Score Analysis

Freiburg 48.65%

Werder Bremen 27.9%

Draw 23.44%

Freiburg	Draw	Werder Bremen
2-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.2) 1-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.38) 3-1 @ 5.54% ( 0.34) 3-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.39) 3-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 2.43% ( 0.24) 4-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.24) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.11) Other @ 3.94% Total : 48.65%	1-1 @ 10.82% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.84% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 1.5% ( 0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.44%	1-2 @ 6.9% ( -0.37) 0-1 @ 6.18% ( -0.4) 0-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.39) 1-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.26) 2-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.23) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.79% Total : 27.9%