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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 82.87%. A draw had a probability of 11.1% and a win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 5.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 4-0 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.14%), while for a Werder Bremen win it was 1-2 (1.89%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Werder Bremen |
82.87% ( 0.94) | 11.14% ( -0.25) | 5.99% ( -0.69) |
Both teams to score 49.6% ( -3.65) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.65% ( -2.02) | 27.35% ( 2.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.07% ( -2.58) | 47.93% ( 2.59) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.2% ( -0.22) | 4.81% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
80.61% ( -0.67) | 19.39% ( 0.67) |
Werder Bremen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.11% ( -3.7) | 47.89% ( 3.7) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.85% ( -2.87) | 83.15% ( 2.87) |
Score Analysis |
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Werder Bremen |
3-0 @ 10.72% ( 0.83) 2-0 @ 10.6% ( 0.98) 4-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.52) 3-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.74) 4-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.23) 5-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.24) 5-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.39) 6-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.34) 6-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.13) 5-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.23) 7-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 4.26% Total : 82.86% | 1-1 @ 5.14% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.34) 0-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.28) Other @ 0.82% Total : 11.14% | 1-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.19) 0-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.4% Total : 5.99% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Bayern MunichBayern | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 12 | 30 | 33 |
2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 29 |
3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 27 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
5 | Freiburg | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 24 |
6 | Stuttgart | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 23 |
7 | Mainz 05Mainz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 |
8 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 22 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 22 |
10 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 21 |
11 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
12 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
13 | Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
14 | Hoffenheim | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 14 |
15 | St Pauli | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
16 | Heidenheim | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 10 |
17 | Holstein Kiel | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 37 | -23 | 5 |
18 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 3 |
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