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Europa League
Leverkusen logo
Europa League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 14, 2024 at 8pm UK
BayArena
Qarabag

B. Leverkusen
3 - 2
Qarabag

Frimpong (72'), Schick (90+3', 90+7')
Schick (70')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Zoubir (58'), Juninho (67')
Juninho (77'), Lunev (90')
Cafarquliyev (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-0 Wolfsburg
Sunday, March 10 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Qarabag FK

All competitions
Last Game: Qarabag 2-2 B. Leverkusen
Thursday, March 7 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Qarabag FK (Bayer Leverkusen to win 5-3 on aggregate)

 Alonso may not be so tempted to makes mass changes to his Leverkusen lineup this time around and should turn to some of his star names from the off in a bid to take control of proceedings and begin the second leg in better fashion than the first. Qarabag will have their tails up heading to Germany and require another spirited display to put themselves in a strong position to progress, but taking into account Leverkusen's strength in depth, the hosts should get the job done to reach the last eight. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 70.56%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 12.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 1-2 (3.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawQarabag FK
70.56% (-0.176 -0.18) 16.88% (0.094000000000001 0.09) 12.56% (0.081 0.08)
Both teams to score 55.93% (-0.095999999999997 -0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.12% (-0.247 -0.25)33.87% (0.246 0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.27% (-0.28 -0.28)55.72% (0.28 0.28)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.45% (-0.099000000000004 -0.1)8.55% (0.1 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.43% (-0.247 -0.25)29.57% (0.247 0.25)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.15% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)38.84% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.42% (-0.038999999999998 -0.04)75.57% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 70.56%
    Qarabag FK 12.56%
    Draw 16.88%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawQarabag FK
2-0 @ 10.04% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.5% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
3-0 @ 8.23% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-0 @ 8.17% (0.065 0.06)
3-1 @ 7.79% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-0 @ 5.06% (-0.032 -0.03)
4-1 @ 4.79% (-0.036 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.68% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-0 @ 2.49% (-0.028 -0.03)
5-1 @ 2.36% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-2 @ 2.26% (-0.019 -0.02)
5-2 @ 1.11% (-0.014 -0.01)
6-0 @ 1.02% (-0.016 -0.02)
6-1 @ 0.97% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 70.56%
1-1 @ 7.72% (0.054 0.05)
2-2 @ 4.49% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 3.32% (0.043 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.16% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 16.88%
1-2 @ 3.65% (0.021 0.02)
0-1 @ 3.14% (0.036 0.04)
0-2 @ 1.48% (0.015 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.42%
1-3 @ 1.15% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.72%
Total : 12.56%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Qarabag

Bayer Leverkusen
86.3%
Draw
6.9%
Qarabag FK
6.9%
131
Head to Head
Mar 7, 2024 5.45pm
Round of 16 1st Leg
Qarabag
2-2
B. Leverkusen
Benzia (26'), Juninho (45+2')
Juninho (8')
Wirtz (70'), Schick (90+2')
> Preview
Nov 9, 2023 5.45pm
Group Stage
Qarabag
0-1
B. Leverkusen

Medina (25'), Vesovic (35'), Gugeshashvili (90+3'), Bayramov (90+7')
Okoh Boniface (90+4' pen.)
Wirtz (68'), Xhaka (69'), Hofmann (69')
> Preview
Oct 26, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
B. Leverkusen
5-1
Qarabag
Wirtz (4'), Grimaldo (29', 54'), Okoh Boniface (35'), Tapsoba (57')
Wirtz (15'), Andrich (43')
Bayramov (16' pen.)
Andrade (19'), Romao (45+1'), Cafarquliyev (77')
> Preview
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