Brazilian outfit Bragantino will look to complete the job in the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana round-of-16 tie against Independiente del Valle on Thursday, as they welcome the Ecuadorian side to Braganca.
Thursday's hosts come into the game with a 2-0 aggregate lead after a fairly routine away victory, but they will know they have far more to do to seal their spot in the final eight.
Match preview
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Bragantino advanced to the Copa Sudamericana round of 16 by topping their group, although their place looked at risk with only one side advancing out of each four-team group.
After three games, the Brazilian side sat on three points, but victories over Emelec, Talleres Cordoba and Deportes Tolima saw them storm into the top spot after the final round of fixtures.
They have had an equally strong start to their domestic season, currently sitting in fourth spot in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table, with just a four-point gap between themselves and league leaders Palmeiras.
Following the impressive end to the group campaign, Mauricio Barbieri's men quickly took the lead in the first leg of their round-of-16 tie against Independiente del Valle through Fabricio Bruno, and their position looked even stronger when Jonathan Bauman was sent off for the hosts on the hour mark.
It only took the Massa Bruta eight minutes to take advantage of their opponents being reduced to 10 men, as Eric Ramires doubled their lead, giving Bragantino a cushion going into the second leg.
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That lead will certainly be tested, though, as Independiente come in with little to lose as they trail by two goals at the break.
The visitors did not qualify through the Copa Sudamericana groups, instead dropping into the round of 16 after falling short in the Copa Libertadores group stage.
The Ecuadorian side were handed a tough group draw, with Defensa y Justicia and Brazilian giants Palmeiras leading the way throughout.
Nonetheless, a pair of draws with Defensa y Justicia and a 4-0 victory over Universitario saw them pip the Peruvian side to third spot, guaranteeing them continental football in the form of a spot in the secondary tournament's round of 16.
If they are to progress through this stage, Renato Paiva's men will have to produce a major performance and pick up an eye-catching result away from home, but their initial qualification for the Copa Libertadores group stage will give them confidence that they can overturn the deficit.
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Team News
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Bragantino should come into Thursday's game without the trio of Gabriel Novaes, Bruno Tubarao and Luan Candido, with all three out of action through injury.
However, midfielder Jadsom will return to contention, having served a suspension in their most recent league game.
Defender Fabricio Bruno and midfielder Eric Ramires could both return to the starting XI after being reduced to substitute appearances in league action last time out, with the pair having been crucial in Bragantino's Copa Sudamericana campaign so far.
Meanwhile, the line will be led by Ytalo, who has registered 12 goals and five assists in 32 appearances in all competitions so far this season.
Independiente del Valle will come into the game without forward Jonathan Bauman, who was sent off in the first leg and will serve a suspension as a result.
Joffre Escobar is expected to come into the side to partner Bryan Garcia up front in Bauman's absence.
Paiva could also opt to bring attacking midfielder Junior Sornoza into the side to offer more threat going forward as they look to chase the game from the beginning on Thursday.
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Schwengber; Aderlan, Bruno, Ortiz, Edimar; Ramires, Jadsom; Artur, Praxedes, Cuello; Ytalo
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Schunke, Pacho, Segovia; Minda, Sornoza, Faravelli, Guerrero; Gaibor, Garcia, Escobar
We say: Bragantino 3-1 Independiente del Valle
The visitors will certainly look to get on the front foot from the beginning of the second leg as they desperately aim to overturn a two-goal deficit, but that could see them fall to another defeat given the collection of quality that Bragantino have at their disposal.
Barbieri's men will have opportunities to catch Independiente on the break, and their clinical front line should have enough to put the Ecuadorian side to the sword and seal a comfortable aggregate win.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 56.12%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 18.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.87%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (7.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
