Despite occupying mid-table positions in the Bundesliga, there is plenty on the line when Borussia Monchengladbach and FC Koln face off in the Rhine derby on Saturday.
The hosts have pulled away from relegation danger in recent weeks after finally putting together a strong run of form, whilst the visitors remain in the race for a European spot thanks to a dramatic comeback win last weekend.
Match preview
© Reuters
First-half goals from Marcus Thuram and Alassane Plea saw Gladbach record a comfortable 2-0 victory at bottom-of-the-table Greuther Furth last weekend to extend their improved run of form.
The latter has been at the centre of their turnaround in success over the last couple of months, with the Frenchman netting five goals and adding as many assists in his last nine appearances.
Although Adi Hutter's side were still struggling for the first handful of those fixtures, the last four have seen Die Fohlen pick up 10 points from the 12 available, which has lifted the club up to 11th place in the table ahead of matchday 30 this weekend.
In truth though, those last four outings have all come against sides in the bottom half of the table, but now that a potentially catastrophic relegation from the top flight is out of the question, Hutter and his team can look to finish the season strongly now that the doom and gloom previously hanging over them has been lifted.
For a side that is supposed to be in a position of its rivals though - challenging for the European spots - the 2021-22 season will have been a hugely disappointing one unless they can finish with a flurry.
Although there appears to be little at stake in terms of league position over the final five games of the Bundesliga campaign, pride is certainly on the line for Gladbach on Saturday, as the hosts look to gain revenge for the humiliating 4-1 defeat that they suffered at the RheinEnergieStadion back in November.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, Koln will look to use that huge success back on home soil as a confidence boost at the home of their rivals this weekend, as the visitors look to record an impressive double over their Rhineland rivals.
Unlike their hosts, the Billy Goats have plenty to play for in terms of league position in these closing stages of the season, as well as the obvious bragging rights.
The thrilling 3-2 come-from-behind win at home to Mainz 05 last time out saw Steffen Baumgart's men remain unmoved in eighth place, but cut the gap on Hoffenheim in sixth to just one point.
For the opening hour of the game, Koln were hardly performing badly, but still found themselves 2-0 behind following goals from Jonathan Burkardt and Karim Onisiwo in either half.
Ellyes Skhiri halved the deficit on the hour mark, before Dejan Ljubicic and Luca Kilian completed the turnaround with a quickfire double later in the second 45 to provide Saturday's visitors with a crucial victory in the race for the European places in the Bundesliga.
Struggles on their travels have hampered Koln's chances of a hugely impressive continental qualification come May, with just three victories from 14 away trips in the league so far this season, but if Baumgart's side can record a third successive triumph over their rivals, then they will provide themselves with a huge chance of leapfrogging an out-of-form Hoffenheim side at the weekend.
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Hutter's options continue to increase thanks to the return to training for Ramy Bensebaini and Luca Netz this week, whilst Tony Jantschke is also back available following his illness.
The return of the trio adds to the welcome returns of Lars Stindl and Jonas Hofmann, who made their injury comebacks with brief substitute cameos in last weekend's victory.
However, Marvin Friedrich remains absent for another week or so, whilst Thuram is a slight doubt after picking up a knock against Greuther.
As for the visitors, Jan Thielmann and Timo Hubers are back available following one-match suspensions served last week, whilst Benno Schmitz could also return following his recent injury.
Sebastian Andersson is in line to feature following his absence through illness, meaning the expected absence of Kingsley Schindler due to personal reasons could be the only missing player for Baumgart to contend with.
Despite not netting in his last five games, and also failing to get on the scoresheet in the 4-1 hammering of Gladbach earlier this season, Anthony Modeste should lead the line and look to add to his 15 Bundesliga goals this season.
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Ginter, Elvedi, Beyer; Lainer, Neuhaus, Kone, Netz; Plea, Embolo; Thuram
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Schmitz, Kilian, Hubers, Hector; Skhiri, Ozcan; Ljubicic, Uth, Kainz; Modeste
We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 1-1 FC Koln
Despite Gladbach picking up in form in recent weeks, it has been against arguably lower calibre opposition.
Koln are a different outfit on their travels compared to their high levels at home, but they will provide a much sterner test for this improving home side, and we can see the two teams cancelling each other out in an even encounter.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 45.36%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 31.39% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.37%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
