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Birmingham logo
Championship | Gameweek 42
Jul 8, 2020 at 6pm UK
St. Andrew's Stadium
Swansea logo

Birmingham
1 - 3
Swansea

Jutkiewicz (5')
Roberts (54'), Gardner (72')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Brewster (12'), Cabango (45'), Fulton (52')
Fulton (71'), Guehi (85'), Naughton (90+1')

Preview: Birmingham City vs. Swansea City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Championship clash between Birmingham City and Swansea City, including team news and predicted lineups.

Birmingham City are seeking their first win since returning to Championship action last month as they prepare to welcome promotion-chasing Swansea City to St Andrew's.

The Blues have drawn two and lost two since the restart, leaving them down in 17th place, while Swansea are in eighth after a mixed set of results on their return to action.


Match preview

Swansea players celebrate scoring against Sheffield Wednesday on July 5, 2020© Reuters

Three victories in a row in early February had Birmingham looking up at the playoffs, but they have failed to win any of their last nine matches since then.

That run includes back-to-back defeats at the hands of Huddersfield Town and Fulham - the latter a cruel 1-0 loss after Josh Onomah struck in the 95th minute at Craven Cottage.

Birmingham's luck is well and truly out, then, and any hopes of a promotion push have long been out of the question.

Indeed, with five games remaining City are not yet entirely out of the relegation picture, sitting as they do just five points and five places above the dropzone.

Pep Clotet's men still have Charlton Athletic and Stoke City, the two sides directly below them, to face during the run-in, so it could yet be a nervy end to the campaign.

A win over Swansea in midweek would go a long way to ending any tension for Clotet, who announced during the lockdown that he will leave St Andrew's later this summer.

Birmingham boss Pep Clotet on February 1, 2020© Reuters

Swansea are in need of the three points for a different reason, with the gap on bitter rivals Cardiff City in the final playoff spot standing at four points.

The Swans kept their campaign alive with a 2-1 win over Sheffield Wednesday on Sunday, coming on the back of disappointing results and performances against Luton Town and Millwall.

This trip to lowly Birmingham is by no means a gimme, though the Blues have failed to win any of their last five home matches and looked deflated after the late loss at Fulham.

Steve Cooper's men are also unbeaten in their last four meetings with Birmingham, a run that includes a 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture 11 months ago.

Birmingham City's Championship form: DLDDLL

Swansea City's Championship form: DDWLDW


Team News

Birmingham City midfielder Jude Bellingham pictured in October 2019© Reuters

Former Swansea midfielder Josh McEachran is Birmingham's only confirmed absentee for this midweek clash after sustaining a serious knee injury in February.

Lukas Jutkiewicz dropped to the bench against Fulham but may well be recalled here, which could mean Scott Hogan being deployed in a wide position.

Young midfielder Jude Bellingham, rumoured to be on the verge of a move to Borussia Dortmund, seems certain to start in attack alongside Jeremie Bela and Hogan.

As for Swansea, Jordan Garrick is serving the last of a three-game ban following his sending off against Luton recently.

Cooper left out Mike van der Hoorn and Ben Cabango in an attempt to freshen up his side at the weekend, though he may recall the defensive duo on Wednesday.

The three-at-the-back system worked well, but Wayne Routledge looked out of place on the left and may make way here.

Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Camp; Colin, Roberts, Clarke-Salter, Pedersen; Sunjic, Gardner; Hogan, Bellingham, Bela; Jutkiewicz

Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Cabango, Guehi, Van der Hoorn; Roberts, Fulton, Grimes, Naughton; Gallagher; Ayew, Brewster


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Birmingham City 0-1 Swansea City

Both teams still have something to play for in the final stretch of the season, with Birmingham looking to make certain of their second-tier status and Swansea chasing down the final playoff spot. Boosted by their return to winning ways last time out, we are backing the Swans to edge Wednesday's clash in the Midlands.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 40.03%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swansea City would win this match.


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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe15112235181735
2Wrexham1694325111431
3Stockport CountyStockport1786329171230
4Birmingham CityBirmingham1493226151130
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield158252315826
6Barnsley167542420426
7Lincoln CityLincoln167542320326
8Reading158252422226
9Bolton WanderersBolton158252425-126
10Mansfield TownMansfield147342016424
11Exeter CityExeter157261413123
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough166373229321
13Bristol Rovers166371721-421
14Charlton AthleticCharlton155461617-119
15Stevenage165471116-519
16Northampton TownNorthampton164661821-318
17Wigan AthleticWigan154561312117
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham164571419-517
19Blackpool164572230-817
20Crawley TownCrawley174491527-1216
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24Burton Albion151591528-138


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