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Leipzig logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 4
Sep 11, 2021 at 5.30pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Bayern logo

RB Leipzig
1 - 4
Bayern

Laimer (58')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Lewandowski (12' pen.), Musiala (47'), Sane (54'), Maxim Choupo-Moting (90+2')

Preview: RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Former RB Leipzig head coach Julian Nagelsmann takes his Bayern Munich side to the Red Bull Arena, where two teams battling for the Bundesliga title will lock horns on Saturday evening.

Three of the last four meetings between the two sides have ended as a draw, though Bayern were victorious when they last visited Die Roten Bullen, securing a narrow 1-0 win in April.


Match preview

RB Leipzig head coach Jesse Marsch pictured on August 15, 2021© Reuters

Before the international break, Leipzig suffered their second defeat in three Bundesliga matches when they were beaten 1-0 away at Wolfsburg.

Die Roten Bullen have now extended their losing league run on the road to five matches, including results from last season.

Three points accumulated after three games – including a 4-0 win over Stuttgart last month – means this is the worst start to a season in RB Leipzig's top-flight history.

Jesse Marsch's task to turn their fortunes around will prove to be a challenge in their next two fixtures, firstly against German giants Bayern Munich, before travelling to England to face Manchester City in their opening Champions League group stage match.

Away form in the Bundesliga has been a problem in recent months, though they have fared better at the Red Bull Arena, losing just one of their last 10 top-flight matches.

Leipzig have failed to win each of their last seven meetings against Bayern, but a victory for Marsch's men on Saturday could be the springboard they need to put a positive run of form together.

Bayern Munich coach Julian Nagelsmann during the match on August 13, 2021© Reuters

Despite playing out a 1-1 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach on the opening day of the new season, Bayern Munich have looked strong so far this campaign, scoring 24 goals in their first five matches across all competitions.

Five of those goals hit the back of the net against Hertha Berlin in their most recent Bundesliga match, as they cruised to a 5-0 victory at the Allianz Arena, thanks to a Robert Lewandowski hat-trick as well as strikes from Thomas Muller and Jamal Musiala.

Bayern head into this weekend's fixture in good form, though they have had a slight blip on the road in recent league matches, failing to win each of their last three. The last time they went four Bundesliga away games without a win was back in the 2011-12 season.

FCB – who have won the Bundesliga title in each of the last nine seasons – are keen to maintain their dominance at the summit of German football, with victories over their nearest challengers such as Leipzig needed to ensure they remain there.

Bayern will be confident of securing a positive result on Saturday, as they have claimed six wins and five draws in their 12 competitive meetings against Leipzig, with their only defeat suffered away from home in March 2018.

RB Leipzig Bundesliga form:
  • L
  • W
  • L

RB Leipzig form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

Bayern Munich Bundesliga form:
  • D
  • W
  • W

Bayern Munich form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W


Team News

Bayern Munich's Thomas Muller celebrates scoring their first goal with Robert Lewandowski on August 28, 2021© Reuters

Marsch is expected to name the same side that has started the previous two Bundesliga matches, which would see teenage defender Josko Gvardiol continue at left-back ahead of the injured Angelino.

Deadline-day signing Ilaix Moriba, who joined on a permanent deal from Barcelona, will be in contention to feature this weekend, though he is expected to start on the bench, with Amadou Haidara and Tyler Adams set to remain in the middle of the pitch.

Striker Andre Silva, who has scored 41 goals in his last 60 Bundesliga appearances, is likely to lead the line in attack ahead of Yussuf Poulsen and Brian Brobbey.

As for Bayern, they will be without French duo Kingsley Coman and Benjamin Pavard, who are suffering with respective hamstring and ankle injuries.

Twenty-one-year-old Josip Stanisic is expected to keep his place at right-back in Pavard's absence, while there are a plethora of attacking options who can fill in for Coman, including Musiala, Leroy Sane and Serge Gnabry.

Summer signings Dayot Upamecano and Marcel Sabitzer could face their former club Leipzig on Saturday, though the latter is doubtful with a groin problem.

Lewandowski, who is set to start up front once again for the visitors, has scored in each of his last 13 Bundesliga games and is now just three behind the record set by Gerd Muller, who scored in 16 top-flight matches in a row during the 1969-70 season.

RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Klostermann, Orban, Simakan, Gvardiol; Adams, Haidara; Szoboszlai, Forsberg, Nkunku; Silva

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Stanisic, Upamecano, Sule, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka; Gnabry, Muller, Musiala; Lewandowski


SM words green background

We say: RB Leipzig 1-3 Bayern Munich

As strong as Bayern have been going forward, they have looked vulnerable at times defensively and so Leipzig with be hoping to take advantage of these issues on Saturday.

However, the firepower the visitors possess should help them secure all three points at the Red Bull Arena.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 53.48%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 24.32% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: RB Leipzig vs Bayern

RB Leipzig
11.6%
Draw
10.7%
Bayern Munich
77.7%
215
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rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern97203272523
2RB Leipzig96211551020
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt95222314917
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen94412015516
5Borussia DortmundDortmund95131715216
6Freiburg95131311216
7Union BerlinUnion Berlin943298115
8Stuttgart93421716113
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach94141514113
10Werder Bremen93331520-512
11Augsburg93241320-711
12Heidenheim93151212010
13Mainz 05Mainz92431213-110
14Wolfsburg92341617-19
15St Pauli9225711-48
16Hoffenheim92251319-68
17Holstein Kiel91261123-125
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum9018929-201


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