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Australia national football team
Asian Cup | Group Stage
Jan 13, 2024 at 11.30am UK
Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium
India national football team

Australia
2 - 0
India

Irvine (50'), Bos (73')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Pratap Singh (90+4')

Preview: Australia vs. India - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Asian Cup clash between Australia and India, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two nations that have built up a healthy rivalry in cricket will square off on the football pitch in Al Rayyan this weekend, as Australia open their Asian Cup campaign against India on Saturday at Ahmed bin Ali Stadium.

It will be the fifth successive appearance for the Socceroos at this tournament after topping their second-round Asian qualification group with a 100% record, while India qualified for a second consecutive time, winning all three of their third-round fixtures.


Match preview

Australia forward Martin Boyle celebrates with teammates on September 10, 2023© Reuters

After stunning many observers at the previous World Cup and making it into the last 16, the Socceroos enter this tournament with bigger expectations than they initially had after punching their ticket into the 2023 Asian Cup years ago.

Graham Arnold has been able to get the best out of this squad, with the Aussies winning their last five competitive fixtures versus teams from Asia, including a 2-0 triumph over Bahrain last weekend.

They have not lost to an Asian opponent since March 2022 (1-0 defeat versus Saudi Arabia), outscoring their last three opponents from that region by a combined margin of 10-0.

The Socceroos have always made it beyond the group stage of this tournament since their first appearance in 2007, winning all three of their group fixtures four years ago.

Currently the fourth-highest ranked side in Asia according to FIFA (25th), the expectation will be for the Australians to contend for the title, something they did on home soil in 2015 while finishing as runners-up the previous time this event took place in Qatar (2011).

Their 2-1 defeat to Argentina in the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup was the first time the Socceroos lost a major tournament fixture in Al Rayyan.

India's coach Igor Stimac reacts on June 3, 2021© Reuters

For the first time in their footballing history, India have qualified for successive Asian Cups, conceding just one goal in the third round of qualifying.

Their manager, Igor Stimac, though, appears to be downplaying the importance of this tournament, seemingly more focused on ensuring his side progress into the third stage of 2026 World Cup qualifying.

At the moment, the Blue Tigers find themselves equal to Kuwait for a top-two position in Group A of World Cup qualifying but behind on goal difference, scoring just once in their two matches so far.

Last year was hugely successful for India, capturing the South Asian Federation Football Championship, the InterContinental Cup and the Tri-Nation Series.

The Blue Tigers have not had much success at this tournament though, making it beyond the Asian Cup group stage once, way back in 1964 when they were runners-up.

They were minutes away from making the last 16 four years ago, losing on a 91st-minute penalty converted by Bahrain in their final group encounter.

It has been a very long time since the Blue Tigers last defeated the Socceroos on the international stage, pummelling them 7-1 in a December 1956 friendly.

Australia form (all competitions):

India form (all competitions):



Team News

Australia coach Graham Arnold on October 13, 2023© Reuters

Gethin Jones collected his first cap for the Socceroos, starting at right-back, before being replaced by Nathaniel Atkinson late in the second half versus Bahrain, while John Iredale and Patrick Yazbek were unused subs and continue to seek their first appearances for the senior side.

Joe Gauci made just his second appearance between the sticks last weekend, posting his first clean sheet for the national team, Mathew Ryan remains one cap behind Alex Tobin for fifth all-time with 87, while Samuel Silvera of Middlesbrough made his first career start for Australia.

A Craig Goodwin cross forced an own-goal from Bahraini defender Amine Benadi before the Al-Wehda striker set up Mitchell Duke for his 12th international goal.

Stimac made numerous changes to the India starting 11 from their first World Cup qualification fixture to the second, with Nikhil Poojary, Sandesh Jhingan, Rahul Bheke, Suresh Singh Wangjam, Lalengmawia Ralte and captain Sunil Chhetri the only ones to keep their place in the lineup for both encounters.

Vikram Partap Singh and Deepak Tangri will be seeking their first international caps, Lalchungnunga made his first senior appearance in their previous encounter versus Qatar (3-0 defeat), while Udanta Singh Kumam is two caps away from reaching 50.

Manvir Singh notched his seventh international goal in their victory over Kuwait last November, while Gurpreet Singh Sandhu collected the clean sheet.

Australia possible starting lineup:
Gauci; Atkinson, Souttar, Burgess, Bos; McGree, O'Neill, Irvine, Goodwin; Duke, Boyle

India possible starting lineup:
Sandhu; Poojary, Jhingan, Bheke, Bose; Wangjam, Ralte; N. Singh, Samad, Chhangte; Chhteri


SM words green background

We say: Australia 2-0 India

Stimac seems unconcerned about how India will fare at this tournament, reportedly consulting an astrologer on team selections.

The Aussies, meanwhile, have been laser-focused lately, and their overall balance across the pitch should propel them to a comfortable opening victory.


Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for India had a probability of 16.46%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a India win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Australia in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Australia.


Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:curl


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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Qatar Qatar33009
Q Tajikistan Tajikistan31114
3 China China30212
4 Lebanon flag Lebanon30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Australia Australia32107
Q Uzbekistan Uzbekistan31205
Q Syria flag Syria31114
4 India India30030

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Iran Iran33009
Q United Arab Emirates flag UAE31114
Q Palestine flag Palestine31114
4 Hong Kong Hong Kong00000

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Iraq Iraq33009
Q Japan Japan32016
Q Indonesia flag Indonesia31023
4 Vietnam flag Vietnam30030

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Bahrain Bahrain32016
Q Republic of Korea South Korea31205
Q Jordan flag Jordan31114
4Malaysia30121

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia32107
Q Thailand Thailand31205
3 Oman flag Oman30212
4 Kyrgyzstan flag Kyrgyzstan30121


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