Austin FC welcome the defending MLS Cup champion Columbus Crew to Q2 Stadium in the Texas capital, as both teams meet for the first time on Sunday.
The MLS expansion side saw their three-match unbeaten streak snapped on Wednesday by Minnesota United, 2-0, while the Crew had a three-game winning run end, losing 1-0 to the Philadelphia Union.
Match preview
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The 27th team in Major League Soccer have followed a similar path to other expansion sides like Nashville and Los Angeles FC, showing a lot of determination and making life very difficult for their opponents so far.
Manager Josh Wolff has seen his young side compete hard from the opening whistle, and their work ethic was rewarded with back-to-back draws against the top two teams in the Western Conference, the Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City.
Earlier this week, they had a solid outing against Minnesota United, but were slow out of the gate, conceding twice in the opening 18 minutes and failing to solve goalkeeper Tyler Miller, who played well for the Loons.
The Verde-and-Black are currently third from the bottom in the Western standings, but one win can change all of that, as they are only three points behind Real Salt Lake for the final playoff spot.
Sunday is the first game of their four-game homestand and a prime opportunity to gain some ground in the standings, with three of their next four opponents coming out of the Western Conference with each side currently above Austin in the standings.
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Before their defeat on Wednesday to the Philadelphia Union, Columbus began to look like the defending league champions, winning three matches and outscoring their opponents 6-2 over that stretch.
Despite losing their last match against Philly, the Crew did many good things against a strong Union side, limiting them to only five shots total and holding the reigning Supporters' Shield winners to less than 40% of the possession.
Caleb Porter has recently seen much more commitment and desire from his team after they had failed to score in three of their opening four matches.
The Crew have not lost to an expansion franchise playing in their inaugural campaign since 2018 when they were beaten 2-0 by LAFC in June of that year.
The defending champs have had a demanding schedule with seven games in May because of the CONCACAF Champions League, and that schedule will not get any easier as Sunday is the start of two games in six days for the Crew.
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Team News
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Austin have been struck by the injury bug lately, with veteran midfielder Alexander Ring missing their last match with an unknown injury, while defender Nick Lima played a mere nine minutes before sustaining an injury versus Minnesota.
Aedan Stanley and Manny Perez were handed their first starts of the year on Wednesday, with both men playing the entire match.
Goalkeeper Brad Stuver made nine saves in his sides first match at Q2 Stadium last weekend, versus the San Jose Earthquakes, picking up his third clean sheet of this campaign in a 0-0 draw.
For Columbus midfielders, Aidan Morris, Perry Kitchen and Luis Diaz remain out of the lineup, with Morris and Diaz sustaining knee injuries, while Kitchen has a hamstring problem.
Gyasi Zardes has two goals in his last two games for the Crew, while Lucas Zelarayan scored twice in their previous road victory on May 22 against New York City FC.
Goalkeeper Eloy Room has only had to face one shot in his last two games, but he could not save the lone Philly effort, scored by Jamiro Monteiro.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Stanley, Cascante, Romana, Gallagher; Berhalter, Fagundez, Pochettino; Dominguez, Perez, Stroud
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Santos, Jonathan, Williams, Afful; Nagbe, Fraser; Hairston, Zelarayan, Etienne; Zardes
We say: Austin FC 2-1 Columbus Crew
Austin have been at their best when playing the elite MLS teams, drawing the Sounders and Kansas City while also beating the Colorado Rapids.
The Crew have struggled away from home, winning only one of their five contests and failing to find the back of the net in four of those matches.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 51.58%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 25.88% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.06%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 2-1 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
