In search of their first league victory of the 2021 campaign, Chapecoense travel to Athletico Paranaense in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A on Monday.
The hosts have claimed 12 points from a possible 15 available so far this season, while the visitors have lost three and drawn three of their opening six games.
Match preview
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Athletico Paranaense suffered their first defeat of the season in disappointing fashion, when they were beaten 2-1 away at Bahia on Friday and played the final few minutes with nine men.
The Red and Blacks were reduced to 10 men just 13 minutes in when Richard was shown a straight red card for a high boot into the face of Rodriguinho; it then got worse for Antonio Oliveira's side four minutes later when Patrick de Lucca headed in from a corner to give Bahia the lead.
Paranaense were, however, able to get back into the game shortly before half time when David Terans drilled in a 40th-minute equaliser.
Bahia dominated the second half with the extra man and eventually regained the lead in the 70th minute when Rossi headed in from close range. Paranense were then reduced to nine men late on after Marcinho was dismissed for a stamp on Rossi.
The Red and Blacks have now slipped from the summit down to second place, with Bragantino leading the way at the top, two points clear of their nearest challengers, though Oliveira's men have a game in hand.
Paranaense have failed to win any of their last three meetings against Chapecoense, but a victory on Monday could seem them return to the top of the table and become the first side this campaign to win five league matches.
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Chapecoense are still searching for their first league win after they came up short in a fiery encounter with Internacional on Friday, losing 2-1 on home soil.
The visitors came out the blocks quickly and opened the scoring five minutes in when Caio Vidal slotted the ball into the bottom left corner, before Yuri Alberto doubled their lead in the 35th minute.
Chapecoense pulled one back 10 minutes after the break, when a glancing header from Derlan glided into the bottom right corner from Ravanelli's deep free-kick.
Then deep into stoppage time, three players were sent off. A mass brawl broke out after Bruno Silva took a swipe at substitute Joao Peglow for rolling the ball away; he was dismissed and then Internacional pair Vidal and Danilo Fernandes were also shown red cards.
That result sees Chapecoense remain in the relegation zone on goal difference and as one of five sides in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A who are yet to win this campaign.
Jair Ventura's side now face a difficult fixture schedule, with Paranaense on Monday followed by games against Fortaleza, Bahia, Corinthians and current league holders Flamengo.
Chapecoense will be the underdogs at the Arena da Baixada, but if the visitors can pull off a surprise victory, they would move out of the relegation zone.
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Team News
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Athletico Paranaense defender Lucas Halter has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a foot injury, while Erick remains doubtful with a thigh problem.
Both Marcinho and Richard are suspended for Monday's game, so Khellven and Leo Cittadini could come into the side at right-back and in central midfield respectively.
Meanwhile, Matheus Babi is back from a one-match suspension and is set to start up front at the expense of Renato Kayzer.
As for Chapecoense, Moises Ribeiro, Joilson, Tiepo, Busanello and Leo Gomes all remain out with injuries, while Silva is suspended.
Ventura could revert back to a 4-2-3-1 formation for Monday's game, which could see Vinicius Guedes and Lima starting in central midfield role behind Ravanelli, who is set to keep his place as the number 10.
Fernandinho may be moved back out to the right-wing, with Anderson Leite operating on the opposite flank and striker Anselmo Ramon likely to lead the line.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Khellven, Ivaldo, Heleno, Henrique, Vinicius; Terans, Richard, Cittadini, Vitinho; Babi
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Ribeiro, Ignacio, Santana, Derlan; Guedes, Lima; Fernandinho, Ravanelli, Leite; Ramon
We say: Athletico Paranaense 3-0 Chapecoense
Neither side will take momentum into this fixture, but Athletico Paranaense have had a much better start to the campaign and will be strong favourites to win on Monday.
We feel that the hosts will have too much quality in the final third for Chapecoense to deal with, and they should be able to seal a comfortable victory in Curitiba.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 50.62%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 21.94%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.66%) and 2-1 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
