Atletico Mineiro and Emelec have it all to play for on Tuesday as both sides square off in the deciding game at Mineirao, following a 1-1 draw in their opening round of 16 clash at the Copa Libertadores.
The Ecuadorians have not progressed beyond this stage of the tournament since 2015, losing out on penalties in 2017 and 2019, while the reigning champions of Brazil managed to hold their nerve in the knockout round of this competition a year ago, defeating Boca Juniors in a shootout, eventually making it all the way to the semi-finals.
Match preview
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Mineiro seem to have settled into a nice groove, unbeaten in seven successive encounters in all competitions, edging Juventude in their previous fixture, 2-1 on Saturday.
Their 2021 campaign seems to have served them well, as it enabled them to gain some valuable experience in these elimination games, as they made a deep run in the Copa Libertadores, while they captured the Copa do Brasil and the Brasileiro Serie A.
Under Antonio Mohamed, Galo have only lost once at home in all competitions since the middle of May, although their only defeat in this year's Libertadores came in Belo Horizonte in the group stage against Deportes Tolima (2-1).
Even though they allowed Emelec back into their opening fixture, Mineiro have usually managed to salvage a result when drawing first blood, without a defeat since October of last year when tallying the opener.
After seven encounters in this competition, the Brazilian champions have only conceded once in the opening half, while six of their 11 goals scored have come in the first 45 minutes.
Galo are an intelligent, stingy defensive unit that look composed and resolute on the back end, who are aggressive and capable of effectively closing off the shooting lanes in their penalty area.
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El Bombillo saved their best performance of this tournament on the final day of group play, exploding for seven goals at home to Independiente Petrolero to win 7-0 and advance to the knockout stage for the first time in three years.
We have rarely seen that kind of offensive output from them in 2022, having tallied a goal or fewer in six of their previous seven matches played in all competitions.
Historically Emelec have only beaten a Brazilian side on the road one time at this competition, in the 2019 group stage when they defeated Cruzeiro 2-1.
They came close to upsetting Flamengo away from home in the last 16 that same year, squandering a 2-0 lead heading into leg number two, losing the return fixture by that same score, before being knocked out 4-2 in a penalty shootout.
Manager Ismael Rescalvo has counted on a patient squad, who take their time while in possession, and his players have adapted well to what opposing teams have shown them, conceding a goal or fewer in their last four matches in all competitions.
Over this Libertadores campaign, Emelec have often needed to make quick, in-game adjustments, conceding the opening goal on five occasions, though finding a way back to collect a result three times.
They have only managed to win one of their last eight fixtures played outside of Estadio George Capwell, netting a goal or fewer in six of those encounters.
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Team News
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Ademir notched his first goal in the opening leg last Tuesday, with Nacho Fernandez tallying the assist on that play, while Hulk leads them with three strikes so far in this competition.
Everson has six clean sheets domestically in the 2022 campaign, but only one at this year's tournament, while Eduardo Sasha notched the winner in their 2-1 triumph over Juventude this past weekend, with Eduardo Vargas assisting on the play.
Keno remains sidelined with a thigh issue, Jair is not expected to return until mid-July due to a broken hand, Matias Zaracho is nearing a return from his muscle injury and Allan will be suspended after his expulsion in the second half of the opening leg.
Emelec midfielder Sebastian Rodriguez is tied for second in goals at the 2022 tournament with six, including the equaliser at home to Mineiro a week ago, while Alexis Zapata has three assists.
Rodriguez and Alejandro Cabeza each had a brace in their 7-0 win in their final group fixture, with the other tallies coming courtesy of Jose Cevallos Enriquez, Joao Rojas and Mauro Quiroga.
Rescalvo made numerous changes to his opening lineup against Atletico compared to the side that he put out in their last domestic encounter, as Marlon Mejia, Enriquez and Bruno Pitton replaced Joel Quintero, Romario Caicedo and Roberto Garces.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Arana, Rever, Nathan, Guga; Calebe, Otavio; Vargas, Fernandez, Ademir; Hulk
Emelec possible starting lineup:
Ortiz; Carabali, Guevera, Leguizamon, J. Rodriguez; Arroyo; Zapata, Garces, S. Rodriguez, Pitton; Cabeza
We say: Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Emelec
Expect this to be a cagey affair between two well-organised teams, though we believe Galo will have an edge because of their individual quality, along with some of the most creative midfielders in South America.
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