Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Jun 28, 2022 at 11.15pm UK

Estadio George Capwell

Emelec
1 - 1
Atletico Mineiro

(Atletico Mineiro win 2-1 on aggregate)

Rodriguez (58' pen.)
Pitton (33'), Guevara (65'), Rodriguez (68'), Arroyo (70'), Mejia (86')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Ademir (16')
Silva (56')
Rodrigues de Souza (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Emelec and Atletico Mineiro, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Emelec

Last Game: Emelec 7-0 Independiente Petrolero
Wednesday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Atletico Mineiro

Last Six:

Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 3-2 Fortaleza
Sunday, June 26 at 1am in Brasileiro

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
3	Internacional	14	7	24
4	Atletico Mineiro	14	6	24
5	Athletico Paranaense	14	2	24

We said: Emelec 0-2 Atletico Mineiro

Emelec have struggled to grind out results in recent weeks, managing just one win from their last six games across all competitions. Meanwhile, Atletico Mineiro appear to have found their rhythm once again and will be backing themselves on Tuesday. We predict a one-sided affair with the visitors coming away victorious. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 48.11%. A win for Emelec had a probability of 26.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-2 (8.79%). The likeliest Emelec win was 1-0 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.

Result
Emelec	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
26.28% ( -0.55)	25.61% ( 0.01)	48.11% ( 0.54)

Both teams to score 51.14% (

-0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.83% (

-0.41)

52.17% (

0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.11% (

-0.36)

73.88% (

0.35)

Emelec Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.31% (

-0.67)

34.69% (

0.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.58% (

-0.72)

71.41% (

0.71)

Atletico Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.3% (

0.07)

21.69% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.15% (

0.1)

54.84% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Emelec 26.28%

Atletico Mineiro 48.1%

Draw 25.6%

Emelec	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
1-0 @ 7.97% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.45% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 2.28% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.15% Total : 26.28%	1-1 @ 12.17% 0-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.98% Total : 25.6%	0-1 @ 11.49% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 9.3% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 8.79% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 4.74% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 4.48% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.71% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.32% Total : 48.1%