The race for a place in the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations goes down to the wire in Group C as Mauritania and Cape Verde lock horns at the Stade de la Capitale on Tuesday.
Both sides are currently level on points in the bottom half of the group standings but could clinch a second-placed finish with a win here as they sit just three points off Botswana in the second qualification spot.
Match preview
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Mauritania's dreams of securing a place in Morocco next year were dealt a major blow on Friday when they were held to a 1-1 stalemate by Botswana at the Obed Itani Chilume Stadium.
The Lions of Chinguetti kicked off the game as they would have hoped after Aboubakary Koita opened the scoring in the seventh minute but Gilbert Baruti restored parity 11 minutes later to force a share of the spoils.
Prior to that, Mauritania kicked off their qualifying journey with a 1-0 victory over Botswana in September's group curtain-raiser before losing three back-to-back games while conceding four goals and failing to find the target in that time.
For all their struggles, Amir Abdou's men head into Tuesday's group finale still in contention for a place in Morocco as they sit fourth in Group C, three points behind second-placed Botswana in the second qualifying spot with a -1 goal difference.
While a win on Tuesday and favourable results in the other group fixture will see Mauritania secure a fourth straight AFCON appearance, they go up against an opposing side who are unbeaten in 10 of their last 13 meetings, claiming seven wins and three draws since February 1982.
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Meanwhile, Cape Verde turned in a fine show of fighting spirit to keep their qualifying hopes alive as they salvaged a 1-1 draw against seven-time African champions Egypt when the two nations squared off on Friday.
In an action-packed contest at the Estadio Nacional de Cabo Verde, veteran forward Ryan Mendes converted his 63rd-minute to cancel out Taher Mohamed's 31st-minute strike and force a share of the spoils.
With that result, Bubista's men have failed to win four of their five matches in Group C — losing three and claiming one draw — with a 2-0 victory over Mauritania in September's reverse fixture being the exception.
Cape Verde have featured in the last two editions of the Africa Cup of Nations, reaching the round of 16 in 2021 before crashing out in the quarter-finals in 2023 following a penalty-shootout defeat against South Africa.
Team News
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Off the back of a solid defensive display against Botswana, Abdou could name an unchanged Mauritania back four, with Aly Abeid, Lamine Ba, Hassan Houbeib and Nouh Mohamed El Abd shielding Babacar Niasse in goal.
AEK Athens midfielder Koita should retain his role in the centre of the park while we should see a front three of Papa Ndiaga, Sidi Amar Bouna and Troyes striker Pape Ibnou Ba.
With his equaliser against Egypt, Mendes now has 21 goals in 84 appearances since his debut in August 2010 to sit six goals clear at the top of Cape Verde's all-time scoring chart.
The 34-year-old, who is also the most-capped player in the nation's history, should lead the attack once again, teaming up with 22-year-old Gilson Tavares and Sporting Lisbon forward Jovane Cabral in the front three.
At the defensive end of the pitch, Logan Costa and Roberto Lopes should form the centre-back pairing, with Vitoria de Guimaraes man Bruno Varela starting between the sticks once again.
Mauritania possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Abeid, Ba, Houbeib, El Abd; Ngome, Mouhsine, Koita; Ndiaga, Bouna, Ba
Cape Verde possible starting lineup:
Varela; Moreira, Costa, Lopes, Paulo; Duarte, Lenini, Monteiro; Mendes, Tavares, Cabral
We say: Mauritania 1-2 Cape Verde
With a place in Morocco next year potentially up for grabs, we expect Mauritania and Cape Verde to go all out at the Stade de la Capitale in search of maximum points.
However, Bubista's side boast the firepower needed to get the job done and we are backing them to extend their dominance over the Lions of Chinguetti with a hard-fought victory.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joshua Ojele
