Atlanta United will look to extend their unbeaten run in Major League Soccer to five games when they return to action on Sunday, hosting the Philadelphia Union at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The Five Stripes are coming off a 2-2 draw with Nashville SC in their previous match before the international break, while the Union have won three straight and are unbeaten in their last five MLS fixtures.
Match preview
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Having the ball for most of the match does not necessarily guarantee a victory, and Atlanta United have proven that time and again in this MLS campaign.
Gabriel Heinze has seen his side accumulate over 60% of the possession in five consecutive games in all competitions, but they only have one victory to show for it, along with four draws.
They flew out of the gate in their last match against Nashville, scoring the opener in the sixth minute and carrying a 2-0 lead into the late stages of that match before conceding twice in three minutes to let two points slip through their fingertips.
One thing you do not want to do when you watch a Five Stripes game is leave early, as this team have conceded five goals in all competitions within the final 15 minutes of a match, and they have scored three times in MLS play with five minutes or less remaining in a game.
The return of fans has undoubtedly been a significant boost to Atlanta, who have had over 40,000 people in attendance in each of their last two home games, and they are unbeaten at Mercedes-Benz Stadium during this MLS regular season.
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Philadelphia return from the international break in high spirits, winning their last three MLS encounters and conceding only one goal in their previous five league games.
The Union were busy during the international break, signing manager Jim Curtin, a Pennsylvania native, to a two-year contract extension.
Fresh off winning the Supporters' Shield in 2020, the first trophy in club history, this team look just as good if not better so far in 2021, sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference and earning a place in the semi-finals of the CONCACAF Champions League.
Losing two players named to the MLS Best XI last season in Mark McKenzie and Brenden Aaronson could have crippled this team, but so far in this campaign that has not been the case, as Philly are on pace for another top-three finish in the Eastern Conference.
They may not have an established superstar, but what they do have is a lot of youthful exuberance plus a cohesive team who play for one another and know their role on the field.
Building from within, cohesiveness and being innovative are the three pillars Curtin has discussed as the key to success, and so far in 2021, his side have done all of those things very effectively.
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Team News
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The Five Stripes will be without midfielder Emerson Hyndman after he suffered a cruciate ligament rupture during a training session over the international break.
Fellow midfielder Mo Adams is struggling to recover from a groin injury, while wingers Jurgen Damm, Machop Chol and centre-back Alan Franco all have leg injuries.
Defender Ronald Hernandez and striker Josef Martinez are with the Venezuelan national team at the Copa America in Brazil.
Union midfielder Jack de Vries has a concussion that has kept him sidelined all season, and fellow midfielder Ilsinho has missed the last eight games with a groin injury.
Jose Martinez is in Brazil at the moment representing Venezuela at the Copa America and thus will not be available this weekend.
Goalkeeper Andre Blake has picked up three successive clean sheets and has not conceded a goal since May 12, in a 1-1 draw with the New England Revolution.
Polish striker Kacper Przybylko has goals in back-to-back MLS games and has scored three times in his last four league matches.
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Lennon, Robinson, Walkes, Bello; Barco, Sosa, Moreno; Lopez, Torres, Mulraney
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Mbaizo, Glesnes, Elliot, Wagner; Bedoya, Flach, Fontana; Monteiro; Santos, Przybylko
We say: Atlanta United 1-2 Philadelphia Union
Without Josef Martinez and Emerson Hyndman, Atlanta will have difficulty finding a way through a side that have conceded the third-fewest goals in the league (five).
The Union eliminated Atlanta in the quarter-finals of the Champions League on a 4-1 aggregate score and have faced many sides with contrasting styles of play, and for the most part, they have been able to handle it all quite well.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (9.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
