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Barrow
EFL Cup | Second Round
Aug 24, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Holker Street
Aston Villa logo

Barrow
0 - 6
Aston Villa


Brown (78'), Arthur (81'), Brough (82')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Archer (10', 62', 88'), El Ghazi (24' pen., 45+2'), Guilbert (75')
Nakamba (35')

Preview: Barrow vs. Aston Villa - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Barrow and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Aston Villa will kick off their EFL Cup campaign on Tuesday, when they travel north to take on Barrow in second-round action.

The Villans recorded their first win of the season last time out, while their hosts have had a mixed start to the league campaign but progressed to this stage with a win over Scunthorpe United in the first round.


Match preview

Aston Villa manager Dean Smith on May 16, 2021© Reuters

Upon their return to the Football League, Barrow had a commendable campaign last season, eventually finishing in 21st spot in the fourth tier with a five-point gap between themselves and the relegation zone.

Under the management of Mark Cooper, they headed into the new season with the hopes of a slightly more comfortable campaign, but they did not get off to an ideal start as a Jake Reeves goal made the difference in a 1-0 away defeat to Stevenage.

The Bluebirds bounced back in style, firstly progressing to this stage with a 1-0 win over Scunthorpe United in the EFL Cup thanks to a Dimitri Sea goal, before they came out of a dramatic encounter against Hartlepool United with a narrow 3-2 win.

Cooper's men took the lead on three separate occasions but were pegged back as Offrande Zanzala and Josh Gordon's goals were cancelled out, while Sea eventually put them back ahead and they would hold on to earn their first three points of the season.

They did not manage to extend that winning run though, playing out a goalless draw with Exeter City in the following match before losing 2-1 to Harrogate Town last time out, as a second-half Alex Pattison brace turned the game on its head after Zanzala's early opener.

Following an inconsistent start to the campaign, Barrow will return to cup action on Tuesday with the hopes of recording a historic win against a side three levels higher than themselves.

 Aston Villa's Anwar El Ghazi celebrates scoring their second goal against Newcastle United in the Premier League on August 21, 2021© Reuters

After a positive season last time around, eventually finishing in 11th spot in the Premier League after a particularly strong first half of the year, Aston Villa headed into the new campaign with optimism, but they suffered a defeat on the opening day to knock their confidence.

Dean Smith's side travelled to take on newly-promoted Watford, and they were two goals behind at the break, as Emmanuel Dennis and Ismaila Sarr got on the scoresheet, before Cucho Hernandez seemingly put the game out of sight in the 67th minute.

The West Midlands side did come close though, as John McGinn immediately pulled a goal back before Danny Ings converted a penalty deep into injury time, although that was not enough to salvage a result.

They quickly bounced back last time out though, as Ings again got on the scoresheet on the stroke of half time against Newcastle United before an Anwar El Ghazi penalty sealed the three-point haul.

They will now go in search of a comfortable and dominant victory to build confidence before the upcoming international break.

Barrow EFL Cup form:
  • W

Barrow form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Aston Villa form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W



Team News

Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates scoring against Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on May 19, 2021© Reuters

After being withdrawn with a potential concussion in Barrow's draw with Exeter City, attacker Dimitri Sea was left out of Saturday's squad, and he should remain out as a precaution.

In his absence, the line will be again led by Offrande Zanzala, who already has two league goals to his name this season.

He should be joined by Josh Gordon, while George Williams could come into the side to complete the front three after being reduced to substitute appearances in recent weeks.

Dean Smith will take this opportunity to take a look at plenty of his squad players, with Jaden Philogene-Bidace and Wesley expected to come into the front line, while Leon Bailey looked set to make his first start for the club if an injury had not ruled him out of their 20-man squad for the victory over Newcastle.

Further back, Kourtney Hause and Axel Tuanzebe will likely partner up at the heart of the defensive line, while Marvelous Nakamba will be given a chance in the engine room alongside Jacob Ramsey.

After hitting the net in both of his first two league games for the Villans, Danny Ings should be rested with Saturday's home game against Brentford on Smith's mind.

Barrow possible starting lineup:
Farman; Brown, Ellis, Grayson; Hutton, Banks, White, Brough; Gordon, Zanzala, Williams

Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Steer; Cash, Tuanzebe, Hause, Targett; Hourihane, Nakamba, Ramsey; Philogene-Bidace, Wesley, El Ghazi


SM words green background

We say: Barrow 0-3 Aston Villa

Aston Villa's squad players will be keen to impress on Tuesday to boost their chances of earning a starting spot going forward, and they should certainly come away from Barrow with a spot in the third round.

Smith could make up to 10 changes, but they still boast more than enough squad depth to cruise past the fourth-tier outfit.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 60.74%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Barrow had a probability of 18.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.23%) and 0-1 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a Barrow win it was 2-1 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Barrow vs Aston Villa

Barrow
18.6%
Draw
1.8%
Aston Villa
79.6%
113
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Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates scoring against Fulham in the Premier League on April 4, 2021
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