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Uruguay national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Nov 12, 2021 at 11pm UK
 
Argentina national football team

Uruguay
0 - 1
Argentina


Caceres (48')
FT(HT: 0-1)
di Maria (7')
Dybala (18')

Preview: Uruguay vs. Argentina - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Uruguay and Argentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Argentina will be looking to make it three victories in a row in their World Cup 2022 qualification campaign when they travel to Uruguay on Friday night.

Lionel Scaloni's side are currently second in their South American qualification section, picking up 25 points from 11 matches, while Uruguay occupy fifth spot, boasting 16 points from their 12 fixtures thus far.


Match preview

Uruguay manager Oscar Tabarez pictured on October 8, 2020© Reuters

Uruguay have won four, drawn four and lost four of their 12 qualification fixtures to date, which has seen them collect 16 points, only enough for fifth position at this stage, but they are just one point behind third-placed Ecuador on the same number of matches.

There is still a lot of football to be played in this section, but Oscar Tabarez's side will be wary of suffering another defeat in this match, having lost their last two games to Argentina and Brazil last month.

The manner of the defeats would have worried Uruguay, with Argentina winning by three clear goals on October 11 before Brazil put four past them four days later.

The Sky Blues were also held by Colombia on October 8, meaning that they have not been victorious in their qualification section since a 1-0 victory over Ecuador on September 9.

Tabarez's team are bidding to be present at their fourth World Cup in a row, and they actually reached the quarter-finals of the 2018 edition, overcoming Portugal in the round of 16 before losing to France.

 Argentina manager Lionel Scaloni on June 14, 2021© Reuters

Argentina, meanwhile, could secure qualification for next summer's tournament this month, although they would need other results to go their way for their spot at the competition to be guaranteed.

Scaloni's side enjoyed a strong October, picking up seven points from their three matches against Paraguay, Uruguay and Peru to move them onto 25 points in the section, boasting a record of seven wins and four draws from their opening 11 matches.

Argentina are six points behind leaders Brazil, but the gap could be shortened by the time that the two rivals meet on November 16 for what should be a fascinating contest.

The White and Sky Blues are actually unbeaten in all competitions since July 2019 - a run that stretches 25 matches - and they will be looking to make it three straight victories over Uruguay in all competitions.

Argentina have won the World Cup on two previous occasions, in addition to finishing as runners-up twice, but they struggled to make their mark in the 2018 edition of the tournament, losing in the round of 16 to France, who edged a seven-goal thriller.

Uruguay World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L

Argentina World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

Argentina form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Argentina's Lionel Messi after the match, October 14, 2021© Reuters

Uruguay will be without the services of injured Manchester United forward Edinson Cavani, but Luis Suarez is in the squad and will feature in attack unless he has any late fitness issues.

Sebastian Coates, Matias Vina, Federico Valverde, Nicolas de la Cruz and Darwin Nunez are also not with the squad, so there will have to be changes from the side that started against Brazil.

Lucas Torreira and Gaston Pereiro are pushing to come into the midfield, while Cavani's absence in the final third of the field could open the door for Facundo Torres to start alongside Suarez.

Argentina have controversially named Lionel Messi in their squad despite the Paris Saint-Germain forward recently being unavailable for selection at club level due to knee and hamstring pain.

It seems unlikely that Messi will be in the starting XI for this match, meaning that there could be a spot in the final third of the field for Paulo Dybala.

A 4-3-3 formation could see Guido Rodriguez earn a spot alongside Leandro Paredes and Rodrigo De Paul in the middle of the park, while Lautaro Martinez is set to get the nod at centre-forward, with the Inter Milan forward on 17 goals in 33 appearances for his country.

Uruguay possible starting lineup:
Muslera; Nandez, Gimenez, Godin, Araujo; Bentancur, Vecino, Torreira, Pereiro; Suarez, Torres

Argentina possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Molina, Romero, Otamendi, Acuna; De Paul, Paredes, Rodriguez; Dybala, L Martinez, Di Maria


SM words green background

We say: Uruguay 1-2 Argentina

Uruguay's squad is not at full strength, and they will welcome a team full of confidence due to their long unbeaten run. Argentina are unlikely to start Messi or indeed use the attacker throughout the 90 minutes, but they should still have enough to put another important three points on the board.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Argentina had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Argentina win was 0-1 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Uruguay vs Argentina

Uruguay
8.2%
Draw
11.8%
Argentina
80.0%
220
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Argentina's Lionel Messi after the match, October 14, 2021
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CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1071222
2 Colombia Colombia1054119
3 Uruguay flag Uruguay1044216
4 Ecuador flag Ecuador1044216
5 Brazil Brazil1051416
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1034313
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1040612
8 Venezuela Venezuela1025311
9 Peru flag Peru101366
10 Chile Chile101275

CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1071222
2 Colombia Colombia1054119
3 Uruguay flag Uruguay1044216
4 Ecuador flag Ecuador1044216
5 Brazil Brazil1051416
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1034313
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1040612
8 Venezuela Venezuela1025311
9 Peru flag Peru101366
10 Chile Chile101275


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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