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America Mineiro
Brasileiro | Gameweek 9
Jul 3, 2021 at 11pm UK
Estadio Independencia
Santos

America Mineiro
2 - 0
Santos

Paulo (55'), Alberto (90+4')
Eduardo (43'), Ricardo (45+2'), Ribamar (72'), Alberto (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Para (38'), Braga (44'), Felipe (68')

Preview: America Mineiro vs. Santos - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Brasileiro clash between America Mineiro and Santos, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

America Mineiro will be looking to maintain their momentum when they take on Santos at Estadio Independencia on Saturday.

The hosts beat Bahia 4-3 last time out to make it three games without defeat, while Santos enter this match unbeaten in four.


Match preview

Santos manger Fernando Diniz during the match on June 25, 2021© Reuters

Santos may have lost just one of their last seven league games, but they have been held in two of their last four outings, including a goalless draw with Sport Recife in midweek.

The Black-and-White dominated the match in terms of possession and shots, yet they could only find the target from one of their 14 efforts.

Fernando Diniz's side have now failed to score in exactly half of their eight league games this season, perhaps explaining why they are outside of the top six.

On their travels, meanwhile, Santos have taken one point from a possible nine this term, while going further back they are winless in eight since January.

Corinthians manager Vagner Mancini pictured in October 2020© Reuters

America Mineiro are winless in their four home games since returning to the top flight, albeit the last three of those matches finishing all square.

After drawing 1-1 with Juventude and Internacional on home soil, the Rabbit beat Bahia in a seven-goal classic last time out to move out of the relegation zone.

Vagner Mancini's charges did make life rather tough for themselves, however, as they led 4-1 in that game before conceding two goals in added time at the end of the contest.

Still, the manner in which his side cruised into a three-goal lead - thanks to strikes from Felipe Azevedo, Juninho Valoura, Ribamar and Juninho - will give Mancini confidence.

Attention now switches to the visit of Santos, and what will be the first meeting between the sides since November 2018 when America prevailed 2-1 winners.

America Mineiro Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • W

Santos Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D



Team News

Santos' Marinho celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on June 25, 2021© Reuters

Mineiro are without injured duo Marlon and Ademir, while Ramon is another fitness doubt for Saturday's showdown.

Given those injury issues, plus the manner of his side's performance against Bahia - for 90 minutes, at least - Mancini may elect to field the same XI here.

As for Santos, they will welcome Marinho back from suspension for this game, and he is expected to slot straight back into the forward line.

That could spell bad news for Lucas Braga, who is the most likely candidate to make way up top.

Sandry Roberto, Jobson, Alison and John are all either ruled out for the visitors or are major fitness doubts.

America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Cavichioli; Eduardo, Bauermann, Anderson, Paulo; Juninho, Rodolfo, Ricardo; Toscano, Ribamar, Azevedo

Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Para, Peres, Felipe, Jonatan; Pirani, Mota, Camacho; Marinho, Jorge; Guilherme


SM words green background

We say: America Mineiro 1-1 Santos

Santos are struggling for consistency, seemingly alternating between a win and a draw on a weekly basis.

America Mineiro are draw specialists at home, meanwhile, and we can see them taking a point off their opponents here.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 39.3%. A win for Santos had a probability of 32.29% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Santos win was 0-1 (10.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: America Mineiro vs Santos

America Mineiro
46.7%
Draw
36.7%
Santos
16.7%
30
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