Two teams fighting for very different things at the moment in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A will battle each other on Monday when America Mineiro host Bragantino.
The club from Belo Horizonte can potentially move out of relegation with a victory, while Braga are hoping to get back into the title race, currently holding down fourth place in the league.
Match preview
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It has not always looked pretty, but Coelho are in a much better position to stay in Serie A than they were a few weeks ago, having earned points in each of their last four matches.
They have created their share of scoring opportunities in those games, and over the past two weeks, that pressure has eventually paid off, finding an equaliser last Monday in the 93rd minute and scoring the winner against Fluminense in the previous week with less than 20 minutes remaining.
Having outshot their opponents in each of their last four fixtures, Vagner Mancini knows that while coming away with points is important, his team could be in a much better position had they capitalised a little more often on their chances.
America have yet to beat any of the other sides currently in the relegation zone, but if they can pull off an unexpected victory on Monday, it could do a lot for their confidence moving forward.
In their first appearance in the Brazilian top flight in three years, this side seem to be suffering from the same issues that they had in 2016 and 2018, a lack of goals.
They have only been shut out of five league fixtures, but they have only scored multiple goals in a single Brasileiro match twice since May and they are the third-lowest scoring team in the league at the moment with 13 goals.
Bragantino are starting to learn that you are not always going to be gifted victories in this league, and that teams will find ways to shut you down.
In their opening six games of the Brasileiro campaign, Braga were scoring with ease, notching 16 goals in that span as they were on top of the table, but Mauricio Barbieri and his side have discovered that winning will not always be that easy.
Winning is something that we have not seen a lot of from this side in the league of late, as they have only earned one victory in their last seven fixtures in this domestic campaign, and although they only have two defeats thus far, all of their draws (seven) have caused them to fall behind in the title chase.
This team have never won the Brasileiro Serie A, but there is renewed optimism that they can still make history as the season is not quite half over, and there are only four points separating them from Palmeiras in second.
Finishing out this month with a pair of victories would put them right back in the title conversation, as they currently sit nine points behind the leaders Atletico Mineiro, who they will face next Sunday at home, where they have only lost once all season in league play.
They may not be scoring at such an alarming rate like they were at the beginning of this campaign, but they are still the joint second-highest scoring team in the league at the moment, with 26 goals, the same as Fortaleza, who are only three points above them in the standings.
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Team News
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Rodolfo notched the equaliser for America to earn a point last Monday versus Chapecoense, his first goal of the season, while Joao Paulo picked up his first assist of the year on that play.
Coelho made one change to the starting 11 against Chape from their victory versus Flu as Alan Ruschel started at full-back instead of Joao Paulo, who came on as a substitute after 20 minutes of play.
Juninho was second in team scoring the last time his side were in the top flight in 2018, and he is currently tied with Felipe Rafael, Ademir and Ribamar for the team lead, while also leading them in assists so far with three.
Artur was instrumental in Braga's victory over Rosario Central in the quarter-finals of the Copa Sudamericana, with a hat-trick in the opening leg away from home and the only goal in the second match on Tuesday.
Their leading goalscorer Ytalo has found the back of the net six times in the domestic campaign but has not scored in any competitive match since July 18, though he was the first player to score a hat-trick this season in a 3-1 win over Palmeiras.
The Braga starting 11 in the Copa Sudamericana was completely different from the team that began versus Juventude, with Jan Hurtado, Fabricio Bruno, Jadsom, Helinho and Eric Ramires appearing in both games, though only as substitutes in one of those matches.
America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Cavichioli; Ruschel, Kal, Eduardo, Patric; Nazario, Ramon; Geovane, Ademir, Alberto; Chrigor
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Aderlan, Realpe, Haydar, Rafael; Ramires, Jadsom, Cuello; Artur, Ytalo, Novaes
We say: America Mineiro 0-2 Bragantino
America struggle to generate much flow to their game, and even though their matches have been tight ones, they are one of the least threatening sides in the league when entering the final third.
They may not score as many goals as they did to start the season, but Braga can still knock a few in, as they showed in the Copa Sudamericana, scoring four times away from home in the opening leg of their quarter-final.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.73%) and 1-2 (7.71%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 1-0 (11.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
