Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Jan 14, 2024 at 2pm UK

Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)

Nigeria
1 - 1
Eq Guinea

Osimhen (38')
Sanusi (65')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Salvador (36')
Bikoro (26'), Balboa (85')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nigeria

All competitions

Last Game: Guinea 2-0 Nigeria
Monday, January 8 at 12pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	1	2	3
2	Equatorial Guinea	0	0	0
3	Nigeria	0	0	0
4	Guinea-Bissau	1	-2	0

Equatorial Guinea

All competitions

Last Game: Eq Guinea 1-1 Djibouti
Tuesday, January 9 at 2pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast	1	2	3
2	Equatorial Guinea	0	0	0
3	Nigeria	0	0	0
4	Guinea-Bissau	1	-2	0

We said: Nigeria 1-1 Equatorial Guinea

Unbeaten in 11 competitive and non-competitive games, Equatorial Guinea should make that 12 against a Super Eagles side heavily reliant on Osimhen to deliver the goods. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 79.12%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Equatorial Guinea had a probability of 5.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.89%) and 3-0 (12.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.68%), while for a Equatorial Guinea win it was 0-1 (2.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Nigeria	Draw	Equatorial Guinea
79.12% ( 0.06)	15.12% ( 0.03)	5.76% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 32.44% (

-0.61)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.34% (

-0.53)

48.66% (

0.52)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.22% (

-0.48)

70.77% (

0.48)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.77% (

-0.12)

10.22% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.46% (

-0.27)

33.54% (

0.27)

Equatorial Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

36.14% (

-0.64)

63.86% (

0.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

7.5% (

-0.29)

92.5% (

0.28)

Score Analysis

Nigeria 79.11%

Equatorial Guinea 5.76%

Draw 15.12%

Nigeria	Draw	Equatorial Guinea
2-0 @ 16.97% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 14.89% ( 0.25) 3-0 @ 12.9% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.79% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 3.36% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.3% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.05) 6-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.86% Total : 79.11%	1-1 @ 6.68% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.21% Total : 15.12%	0-1 @ 2.93% ( -0) 1-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.33% Total : 5.76%