Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.45%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
43.4% ( 0.09) | 22.83% ( -0) | 33.77% ( -0.1) |
Both teams to score 65.21% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.3% ( -0.04) | 35.7% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.23% ( -0.04) | 57.76% ( 0.04) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.97% ( 0.02) | 17.02% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.84% ( 0.04) | 47.16% ( -0.04) |
Newcastle Jets Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.59% ( -0.07) | 21.41% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.59% ( -0.11) | 54.41% ( 0.11) |
Score Analysis |
Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 5.71% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.2% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.01% 3-0 @ 3.37% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.3% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.77% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 3.38% Total : 43.4% | 1-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.83% | 1-2 @ 7.67% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5.62% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.94% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.49% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.65% Total : 33.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
> Australian A-League Full Table |