Home favourite Jannik Sinner commences his bid for ATP World Tour Finals glory with a round-robin encounter against Greece's Stefanos Tsitsipas on Sunday.
The Italian will be competing at the year-end championships for the second time this year, while Tsitsipas seeks to replicate his 2019 success after a trio of subsequent early exits.
Match preview
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The Turin crowds will arrive en masse to express their unwavering support for Sinner, who is the only Italian representative at his home ATP Finals and returns to the premier year-end championships two years on from his debut appearance at the 2021 event.
That year, the 22-year-old was not one of the top eight qualifiers and only earned his spot in the round-robin phase as an alternate to compatriot Matteo Berrettini, overcoming Hubert Hurkacz before losing to Daniil Medvedev to miss out on a spot in the semi-finals.
Fast-forward to 2023, and Sinner - now ranked fourth in the world - has warranted a spot among the ATP Tour elite, breaking new ground by reaching his maiden Grand Slam semi-final at Wimbledon before falling to Novak Djokovic's superiority in three sets.
Not long after his SW19 stardom, the Italian fourth seed lifted a Masters title for the first time as he came up trumps in the Canadian Open, prior to which he had also made waves at ATP 1000 level by reaching the final of the Miami Open and progressing to the final four of the Indian Wells Masters and Monte-Carlo Masters.
One of the form players heading into the Turin tournament, Sinner took another two ATP 500 crowns in October's China Open and Vienna Open - before withdrawing from his Paris Masters last-16 clash with Alex de Minaur - and with three victories at the ATP Finals, he will become the first Italian in the Open Era to win 60 top-level matches in a single season.
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The 2001-born protege has affirmed that he will thrive under the pressure of delivering for the home crowd, but standing in his way of a fast start is a man who is rather comfortable under the cosh, as sixth seed Tsitsipas endeavours to avoid a fourth successive round-robin exit from the year-end finals.
Back in 2019, Tsitsipas held his nerve in a final-set tie-breaker with Dominic Thiem to clinch ATP Finals glory on his tournament debut, and he has qualified for every tournament since, but his 2020, 2021 and 2022 campaigns all ended without the 25-year-old reaching the semi-finals.
Unlike Sinner, Tsitsipas travels to Turin without a Masters crown to boast from his 2023 season - losing in the semis of the Italian Open and Paris Masters, the latter being his most recent competition - but he progressed to his second Grand Slam final at the Australian Open, where Djokovic proved too strong.
Out of three finals in 2023, Tsitsipas's only triumph came at August's Los Cabos Open, and a record of 51-22 for the year is far inferior to Sinner's 57-14, but the Greek sixth seed boasts a few superior statistics; his tally of 89.7% service games won on hard courts in 2023 is second only to Djokovic's 91.4%.
Tsitsipas has also been broken just once every 8.4 service games in 2023 - the best record out of all eight competitors - but on the other hand, Sinner's second-serve return win rate of 54.7% is unrivalled; Tsitsipas's 48.8% does not even put him in the top 50 players in that regard.
Head To Head
Italian Open (2019) - Second round: Tsitsipas wins 6-3 6-2
Italian Open (2020) - Second round: Sinner wins 6-1 6-7[9] 6-2
Barcelona Open (2021) - Semi-final: Tsitsipas wins 6-3 6-3
Australian Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Tsitsipas wins 6-3 6-4 6-2
Italian Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Tsitsipas wins 7-6[5] 6-2
Australian Open (2023) - Fourth round: Tsitsipas wins 6-4 6-4 3-6 4-6 6-3
Rotterdam Open (2023) - Second round: Sinner wins 6-4 6-3
Familiar foes over the past few years, Sinner and Tsitsipas have crossed paths seven times in ATP Tour contests, and the Greek has five wins to boast against his more youthful counterpart, who only has two victories on his CV from this head-to-head.
However, one of those triumphs came in the most recent meeting between the pair at February's Rotterdam Open, where Sinner prevailed in straight sets to end a four-match losing streak against the world number six, who won a five-set spectacular in the fourth round of this year's Australian Open after also knocking Sinner out of the first major of 2022.
Meetings in Sinner's homeland have also been commonplace for the duo, who did battle at the 2019, 2020 and 2022 Rome Masters on clay - with Tsitsipas winning two of them - and the Greek is also yet to lose a tie-breaker against the Turin poster boy.
We say: Sinner to win in three sets
While Tsitsipas has often had Sinner's number down the years, the Italian prevailed comfortably in their only indoor hard-court meeting to date at the Rotterdam Open and has both form and home support on his side heading into Sunday's opener.
Tsitsipas's prior ATP Finals experience and mastery under pressure will still make this a tricky affair for the fourth seed, but we have faith in Sinner to triumph in a three-set slog and give the home crowd something to cheer.
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Ben Knapton
