Carlos Alcaraz's belated ATP World Tour Finals debut is finally upon us, as the world number two takes on Alexander Zverev in his opening Red group match on Monday.
Russian duo Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev are also present in the intriguing section alongside Alcaraz and Zverev, who already has two year-end titles to his name.
Match preview
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Fresh from clinching his first major honour at the 2022 US Open, Alcaraz was due to battle for glory in last year's ATP Finals, only to miss out with a severe abdominal injury as Novak Djokovic stormed to crown number six at the year-end Championships.
Twelve months on, Alcaraz and Djokovic are both in contention for the year-end number one ranking in Turin, but it would take a truly astonishing set of circumstances for the Spaniard to knock the 24-time Grand Slam winner off his throne heading into 2024.
In order to top the standings at the end of the year for the second time in a row, Alcaraz must win the ATP Finals title without suffering a single defeat - not an unfathomable scenario - while also hoping that Djokovic crashes out in the group stage and loses every single one of his contests.
The latter chain of events is surely fanciful at best, but Alcaraz can only focus on his exploits on the Italian surface as he bids to bounce back from a couple of underwhelming Masters performances, losing in the fourth round in Shanghai before a last-32 exit in Paris to Roman Safiullin.
Nevertheless, a 63-10 record for the year is nothing to be scoffed at - nor are his titles from Wimbledon, Indian Wells, Madrid, Queen's Club, Barcelona and Argentina - but the 20-year-old's experience pales in comparison to that of a seasoned ATP Finals competitor in Zverev.
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The German seventh seed can certainly empathise with Alcaraz when it comes to devastating injuries, having memorably left his 2022 French Open semi-final with Rafael Nadal in a wheelchair after tearing ankle ligaments, leading to his absence from the ATP Finals for the first time since 2016.
Zverev is no stranger to sinking the world's best at the year-end championships, though, as he boasts two ATP Finals titles from the 2018 and 2021 tournaments, as well as reaching the semi-finals in 2019, but his 2017 and 2020 campaigns both ended with round-robin exits.
Since his recovery, Zverev has added a third successive French Open semi-final and US Open quarter-final to his CV, but he was eliminated before the quarter-finals in all but one of his Masters appearances, getting to the semis in Cincinnati before losing to Djokovic in straight sets.
Zverev's Paris campaign was also brought to an end by Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third round earlier this month, but the German still managed to clinch his first top-level honours since the 2021 ATP Finals this season, triumphing at July's Hamburg European Open and September's Chengdu Open.
The seventh seed brings a 53-22 record to Turin for this month's tantalising tournament, and after admitting that he was giving no thought to another ATP Finals appearance at the start of 2023, Zverev could now be just five matches away from a third piece of year-end glory.
Head To Head
Mexican Open (2021) - First round: Zverev wins 6-3 6-1
Vienna Open (2021) - Semi-final: Zverev wins 6-3 6-3
Madrid Open (2022) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-1
French Open (2022) - Quarter-final: Zverev wins 6-4 6-4 4-6 7-6[7]
Madrid Open (2023) - Fourth round: Alcaraz wins 6-1 6-2
US Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-2 6-4
Nothing can separate Alcaraz and Zverev in the head-to-head column heading into Monday's mouthwatering battle, as the pair have three wins apiece to show from their six ATP Tour meetings since first locking horns on the circuit in 2021.
That year, Zverev defeated a teenage Alcaraz in straight sets at the Mexican Open and Vienna Open - going on to win both titles - but the Spaniard has since come up trumps in three of their last four showdowns, including a pair of Madrid Masters wins in the 2022 final and 2023 fourth round.
The duo's opening Grand Slam battle came in the quarter-finals at Roland Garros last year, which saw Zverev prevail in four before his run was cruelly ended against Nadal, but Alcaraz earned a slice of revenge at this year's US Open, strolling to a three-set triumph before Medvedev brought an end to his title defence.
We say: Alcaraz to win in two sets
Neither Alcaraz nor Zverev have set the world alight in their most recent Masters appearances, but the latter's ATP Finals experience may count for little on Monday, having failed to win a set against the Wimbledon champion in their two meetings so far in 2023.
For a 6ft 6in player, Zverev possess strong movement and will need to bring out the big serves and diligent defence to keep Alcaraz at bay, but it may be a futile endeavour, as we still expect the Spaniard to get off to a winning start.
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Ben Knapton
