MX23RW : Monday, December 23 14:28:06| >> :600:1361501:1361501:
Six Nations | Group Stage
Feb 4, 2023 at 2.15pm UK
 
Wales
10-34
Ireland
Williams (46')
FT
Doris (1'), Ryan (9'), Lowe (21'), van der Flier (73')

Preview: Wales vs. Ireland - prediction, team news, head to head

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Six Nations clash between Wales and Ireland, including predictions, team news and head-to-head records.

The 2023 Six Nations gets underway at the Principality Stadium on Saturday as Warren Gatland's Wales welcome tournament favourites Ireland to Cardiff.

Amid scandal rocking the WRU, on the pitch Gatland could hardly have wished for a more difficult beginning to his second stint at the helm, with his former side Ireland heading into the start of World Cup year as the top-ranked team on the planet.


Match preview

Warren Gatland pictured in August 2019© Reuters

Four years after last gracing the Six Nations stage, Warren Gatland is back with Wales and hoping for history to repeat itself.

When the New Zealander first took over Wales in all the way back in 2007, the team had finished fifth in that year's Six Nations but then bounced back to win the Grand Slam in 2008.

It proved to be the start of an unprecedented period of success for Gatland, who also lifted the title in 2012 and 2013 before finishing in 2019 as he started 12 years earlier with another Grand Slam - his record third as head coach.

Fifty Tests and 36 wins for Wales in the Six Nations under Gatland saw Ireland's regret at sacking him after he won seven of his 10 such games in charge of them grow, but now they may provide the biggest of many obstacles in the way of him winning a fifth title this year.

Wales' 2019 triumph under the 59-year-old may have brought a triumphant end to his first Six Nations spell in charge of the nation, but it also began a bemusing run of Wales alternating between winning the title and finishing fifth in each of the last four editions of the tournament.

Wales' Ken Owens and head coach Warren Gatland pose with the Six Nations trophy during the launch on January 23, 2023© Reuters

Ultimately, the last of those contributed to Gatland's successor and predecessor Wayne Pivac being sacked late last year, with Wales only beating Scotland at home in last season's Six Nations.

A first-ever home defeat at the hands of perennial whipping boys Italy in their final match of that tournament was not even the worst of it for 2022, as Wales went on to be beaten at home by Georgia in their final match of the year - a historic first win over a Tier 1 nation for the Lelos, but a new low for Wales.

Pivac ended his final year in charge with a record of just three wins and nine defeats throughout 2022, but rather than look at rebuilding the team with one eye on the World Cup later this year, Gatland insists that results are the be-all and end-all from the get-go for his side.

Victory would certainly help to lift the gloom surrounding Welsh rugby off the field at the moment, with the WRU in turmoil over allegations of misogyny, sexism and racism which have led to chief executive Steve Phillips being forced to step down.

For Ireland, the fact that it is World Cup year will be greeted with excitement and cautiousness by supporters as their team have flattered to deceive on previous occasions when they have been touted amongst the favourites to lift the trophy.

In stark contrast to Saturday's opponents, Andy Farrell's men enjoyed an unforgettable 2022 which saw them record a first-ever series victory over the All Blacks in New Zealand, before ending the year with a clean sweep in the Autumn Nations.

Ireland head coach Andy Farrell before the match on November 12, 2022© Reuters

Nine of their 11 outings last year ended in victory, including each of their last five, with their only defeats coming against New Zealand in Auckland and France in Paris - the latter a result which ultimately saw them miss out on the Six Nations title.

Despite having to settle for second place behind Les Bleus in 2022, Ireland still won a record sixth Triple Crown, while also scoring the most tries (24) and the joint-most points (168) they have ever managed in a Six Nations campaign.

The goal for this year will be to go one better and lift the trophy for the first time since Joe Schmidt's Grand Slam winners of 2018, and improvement has certainly been the name of the game under Farrell, with Ireland increasing their total points scored and points difference in each of his campaigns in charge.

Contrary to common perception, Ireland also boast a better win percentage in the Six Nations in World Cup years compared to non-World Cup years, although there is no doubting that the favourites tag has weighed heavily on them at times in the past.

Captain Johnny Sexton is confident that will not be the case this time around, pointing to their perfect Autumn Nations record while holding the world number one rank, and an away game against a Wales side led by such a serial winner in Gatland will be a good first test of that assertion.


Team News

Wales' Leigh Halfpenny on February 7, 2021© Reuters

Leigh Halfpenny had been set to make his first Wales start for 19 months in this match, but he has been forced to withdraw from the XV, being replaced by Liam Williams at full-back.

George North will win his 110th cap at centre and needs only one try to overtake Shane Williams as Wales' outright leading try-scorer in the Six Nations, while Brian O'Driscoll's overall record is just four away.

Speaking of O'Driscoll, Alun Wyn Jones - already the most-capped player in international rugby history - will equal the Irish legend's tally of 65 Six Nations appearances in this match, leaving only Italy's Sergio Parisse ahead of him in the all-time list.

Gareth Thomas will feature for the first time under Gatland alongside experienced duo Ken Owens and Tomas Francis in the front row.

Jac Morgan - Wales' leading try-scorer in 2022 and the player who averaged more tries per game than any other Northern Hemisphere player to feature for more than 300 minutes last year - will be at blindside in a star-studded back row which also includes Justin Tipuric and Taulupe Faletau.

Ireland will be led out by Sexton at the start of his final Six Nations tournament, with the captain needing only 28 points to overtake his predecessor Ronan O'Gara as the leading points-scorer in the competition's history.

The 2018 World Rugby Player of the Year is joined in the XV by the latest winner of that award as Josh van der Flier - Ireland's leading try-scorer and tackler for 2022 - starts at openside.

Peter Mahony is in line to win his 90th cap on the opposite side of the scrum, while prop Finlay Bealham will make his first Six Nations start in place of the injured Tadhg Furlong.

Wales starting lineup:
15. Liam Williams, 14. Josh Adams, 13. George North, 12. Joe Hawkins, 11. Rio Dyer, 10. Dan Biggar, 9. Tomos Williams; 1. Gareth Thomas, 2. Ken Owens (c), 3. Tomas Francis, 4. Adam Beard, 5. Alun Wyn Jones, 6. Jac Morgan, 7. Justin Tipuric, 8. Taulupe Faletau

Replacements: 16. Scott Baldwin, 17. Rhys Carre, 18. Dillon Lewis, 19. Dafydd Jenkins, 20. Tommy Reffell, 21. Rhys Webb, 22. Owen Williams, 23. Alex Cuthbert


Ireland starting lineup:
15. Hugo Keenan, 14. Mack Hansen, 13. Garry Ringrose, 12. Stuart McCloskey, 11. James Lowe, 10. Johnny Sexton (c), 9. Jamison Gibson-Park; 1. Andrew Porter, 2. Dan Sheehan, 3. Finlay Bealham, 4. Tadhg Beirne, 5. James Ryan, 6. Peter O'Mahony, 7. Josh van der Flier, 8. Caelan Doris

Replacements: 16. Rob Herring, 17. Cian Healy, 18. Tom O'Toole, 19. Iain Henderson, 20. Jack Conan, 21. Conor Murray, 22. Ross Byrne, 23. Bundee Aki


Head To Head

Ireland's Garry Ringrose runs through before scoring their fourth try against Wales in the Six Nations on February 5, 2022© Reuters

The last nine meetings between these two sides have been split evenly at four wins apiece with one draw, with the last six alternating between Wales and Ireland victories.

Farrell's men triumphed last year and could therefore become the first team to win this fixture twice in a row since Ireland also did so in 2013 and 2014, although that 2013 triumph 10 years ago was also the last time they won against Wales in Cardiff.

Even so, Ireland boast a winning record at the Principality Stadium, winning seven of their 13 visits there, while overall in the Six Nations they have chalked up 13 wins in this fixture to Wales' nine.

Last year's 29-7 triumph in their opener was Ireland's biggest Six Nations win over Wales since 2014.


SM words green background

We say: Wales 19-25 Ireland

Wales under Gatland should be an entirely different proposition to Wales under Pivac, and it is a risky game to back against the New Zealander's record in this competition.

However, Ireland are flying at the moment and boast a squad packed with quality throughout. The visitors are favourites to lift the trophy for a reason and, while it should be closer than last year's meeting, we are backing Ireland to come out on top once again.


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Written by
Barney Corkhill
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How you voted: Wales vs Ireland

Wales
13.0%
Draw
4.3%
Ireland
82.6%
23
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Wales head coach Wayne Pivac pictured in October 2020
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