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World Cup
Bolivia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Nov 16, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Hernando Siles
Peru national football team

Bolivia
2 - 0
Peru

Vaca (20'), Vaca (87')
Justiniano (30'), Vaca (45+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Callens (34'), Advincula (87'), Gallese (87'), Reyna (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Bolivia and Peru, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolivia

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Paraguay 1-0 Bolivia
Tuesday, October 17 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Peru

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Peru 0-2 Argentina
Wednesday, October 18 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Bolivia 1-1 Peru

 On the back of poor starts to the qualifying campaign, both nations will see Thursday's contest as a good opportunity to get up and running with a first win, but with the visitors perhaps boasting more quality and the hosts often faring well in La Paz, despite their recent results on home soil, we see a share of the points as the most likely outcome this week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 38.94%. A win for Bolivia had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Bolivia win was 1-0 (10.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.

Result
BoliviaDrawPeru
33.38% (-0.687 -0.69) 27.68% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05) 38.94% (0.73399999999999 0.73)
Both teams to score 48.5% (0.020000000000003 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.74% (0.079999999999998 0.08)57.26% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.9% (0.064 0.06)78.1% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Bolivia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.93% (-0.41799999999999 -0.42)32.07% (0.419 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.46% (-0.477 -0.48)68.54% (0.479 0.48)
Peru Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.4% (0.467 0.47)28.6% (-0.466 -0.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.6% (0.58 0.58)64.4% (-0.57900000000001 -0.58)
Score Analysis
    Bolivia 33.38%
    Peru 38.94%
    Draw 27.67%
BoliviaDrawPeru
1-0 @ 10.43% (-0.15 -0.15)
2-1 @ 7.43% (-0.097 -0.1)
2-0 @ 5.93% (-0.156 -0.16)
3-1 @ 2.82% (-0.069 -0.07)
3-0 @ 2.25% (-0.086 -0.09)
3-2 @ 1.76% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 33.38%
1-1 @ 13.05% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 9.17% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
2-2 @ 4.65%
Other @ 0.8%
Total : 27.67%
0-1 @ 11.48% (0.12 0.12)
1-2 @ 8.17% (0.091999999999999 0.09)
0-2 @ 7.19% (0.163 0.16)
1-3 @ 3.41% (0.082 0.08)
0-3 @ 3% (0.106 0.11)
2-3 @ 1.94% (0.025 0.03)
1-4 @ 1.07% (0.039 0.04)
0-4 @ 0.94% (0.045 0.04)
Other @ 1.75%
Total : 38.94%

How you voted: Bolivia vs Peru

Bolivia
40.4%
Draw
26.9%
Peru
32.7%
52
Head to Head
Nov 20, 2022 2am
International Friendly
Peru
1-0
Bolivia
> Preview
Nov 12, 2021 2am
Group Stage
Peru
3-0
Bolivia
Cueva (32'), Trauco (50')
Gonzales (40')
> Preview
Oct 10, 2021 9pm
Group Stage
Bolivia
1-0
Peru
Vaca (83')
Villarroel (2'), Jusino (24'), Justiniano (74')
Vaca (76')

Gonzales (42'), Cartagena (76')
> Preview
Jun 18, 2019 10.30pm
Group Stage
Bolivia
1-3
Peru
Martins (28' pen.)
Chumacero (30'), Fernandez (72'), Haquin (82')
Guerrero (45'), Farfan (55'), Flores (95')
Zambrano (27'), Guerrero (42')
Sep 1, 2017 3.15am
Group Stage
Peru
2-1
Bolivia
Flores (55'), Cueva (59')
Alvarez (72')
rhs 2.0
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