Tondela host SC Farense on Saturday evening in a hugely important game at the bottom of the Primeira Liga table, with the away side currently sitting in the relegation zone.
Despite their league position, Farense remain just three points behind 10th-placed Rio Ave, showing how open and competitive this half of the table is as we approach the second half of the season.
Match preview
Tondela come into this clash following a disappointing 2-0 away loss at the hands of Belenenses, when the hosts scored twice in the first half to leapfrog Tondela and condemn Pako Ayestaran's side to an eighth league loss of the season.
This ended a promising run of results including two wins out of the three previous league matches. Mario Gonzalez scored the only goal as they picked up a 1-0 home win over Famalicao, before Gonzalez scored again, followed by a Salvador Agra second-half brace, to secure a crucial league win in a 3-1 victory over Primeira Liga basement side Boavista.
Between those two games, the Auriverdes fell to a 2-0 away defeat against title challengers Benfica, where the hosts only added a second goal deep into added time.
Despite a fairly dominant victory for the Portuguese giants, that performance will provide a degree of optimism for Tondela, who held a high quality attack for a large portion of the match.
Another reason to be positive is their solid home record in the league; only five sides have been better on home turf than Tondela this season, with Ayestaran's side picking up an impressive 14 points from their eight league games at the Estadio Joao Cardoso, winning four, drawing two and losing two.
That does not look too positive for Farense, who have one of the worst away records in the league this season. So far, Os Leoes de Faro have picked up just one point from six league games on their travels, suggesting a real weakness on the road.
In the club's first season back in the top flight in 18 years, Sergio Vieira's side have struggled to build any consistency which would allow them to move clear of the drop zone, however recent results do suggest a slight upturn in form in recent weeks.
In their last six league matches, Farense have recorded two wins, one draw and three losses.
However, a closer look shows that two of these defeats were narrow 1-0 losses to two title-chasing sides in Sporting Lisbon and Porto, which are by no means humiliating for a side battling to survive the drop.
They came within touching distance of a point away at league leaders Sporting, but those hopes were dashed by a 91st-minute penalty scored by Andraz Sporar, while a Mehdi Taremi goal was all that separated the sides in Farense's loss to Porto in their most recent league outing.
The visitors will be hoping that an important home win against Gil Vicente, prior to the Porto loss, may galvanise the squad to an impressive result.
Nikola Stojiljkovic and Lica gave the hosts an early two-goal lead in that game before Gil Vicente pulled one back before half time. Despite a red card shown to Lica, Fabricio Isidoro scored late to seal the 3-1 victory.
With a tough schedule coming up including fixtures against Santa Clara, Moreirense, Vitoria and Benfica, Vieira's side will look to take a positive result from this game and take advantage of a poor Tondela defence, whose 25 goals conceded is only topped by the 26 shipped by Boavista and Famalicao.
Tondela Primeira Liga form: WLDLWL
SC Farense Primeira Liga form: DLWLWL
Team News
Tondela have, like many other Portuguese sides, suffered from missing players due to COVID-19, with midfielders Telmo Arcanjo and Jaume Grau missing recent fixtures along with winger Rafael Barbosa and goalkeeper Joel Sousa.
Barbosa returned off the bench in the 2-0 loss to Belenenses, however the other three could remain unavailable for this match.
Mario Gonzalez is expected to lead the line for the home side, having scored five goals in nine games for Ayestaran's side this season since his loan move from La Liga outfit Villarreal.
Meanwhile, Farense talisman Ryan Gauld could be the key man in this game. The Scottish midfielder has four goals and four assists to his name in the league this season after firing his side to promotion as Segunda Liga player of the season last campaign.
The visitors will have attacker Lica available for selection after he was shown a red card in the victory over Gil Vicente.
Midfielder Fabricio Isidoro was absent from the matchday squad against Porto and Filipe Melo could start in his place again in this game.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Bebeto, Medioub, Tavares, Suarez, Khacef; Murillo, Pedro, Augusto, Agra; Gonzalez
SC Farense possible starting lineup:
Defendi; Pinto, Nogueira, Scheid, Nunes; Oudrhiri, Melo; Lica, Gauld, Queta; Stojiljkovic
We say: Tondela 2-1 SC Farense
We believe this will be a closely fought game between two sides in the fight at the bottom end of the table.
With both sides coming into this game with a level of optimism and confidence, we can see the hosts coming out of this encounter with a narrow 2-1 victory to continue their good run of form.
Top betting tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 39.13%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.89%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 0-1 (11.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tondela would win this match.
