Emmen play host to Sparta Rotterdam on Friday evening with the opportunity to move off the bottom of the Eredivisie standings for the first time since October.
Meanwhile, Sparta head into this fixture on the back of three successive defeats, aware that a fourth could see them pulled into a relegation battle.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having gone 22 matches without winning in the Eredivisie, it will be the stuff of fairytales if Emmen manage to avoid relegation from the Dutch top flight this season.
However, successive victories over PEC Zwolle and FC Utrecht have ignited the imagination of a fanbase who would have all but given up on their team remaining among the nation's elite.
On the back of edging out Zwolle in a five-goal thriller, an early goal from Sergio Pena secured back-to-back victories for Dick Lukkien's side.
Now sitting just five points adrift of 16th-placed Willem II, there is genuine expectation that Emmen can pull off one of the greatest escape acts in recent history.
As far as Sparta are concerned, they will be motivated to avoid getting dragged into a battle to avoid the drop after a poor run of results since the turn of the year.
Having previously won six times in nine matches, Henk Fraser's outfit have since claimed just two points from seven league fixtures.
Their latest defeat came at the hands of struggling Willem II, an indication that this group of players are bereft of confidence heading into one of the biggest games of their season.
On a positive note, Sparta have claimed 10 points from their most recent six fixtures away from home, while they also scored two goals in defeat at Ajax during February.
Emmen Eredivisie form: LLLLWW
Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie form: LDDLLL
Team News
Barring any late fitness issues, Lukkien is unlikely to make any changes to his Emmen XI.
Nikolai Laursen and former Wolverhampton Wanderers man Paul Gladon are alternatives in the final third if Fraser tinkers with his side.
Sparta will be without Jeffry Fortes after the defender was dismissed during the latter stages against Willem II.
Aaron Meijers is expected to replace the injured Mica Pinto, while Bryan Smeets may also be considered for a recall.
Emmen possible starting lineup:
Verrips; Bijl, Araujo, Bakker, Cavlan; Vlak, Moussa; Frei, Pena, Adzic; De Leeuw
Sparta Rotterdam possible starting lineup:
Okoye; Abels, Vriends, Heylen, Meijers; Auassar, Harroui; Mijnans, Thy, Duarte; Gravenberch
We say: Emmen 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam
For the first in months, Emmen are regarded as the marginal favourites to win a match in the Eredivisie. However, that may not necessarily play into their favour, and we feel that the added pressure may give the visitors the chance to claim a share of the spoils.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 44.28%. A win for Emmen had a probability of 30.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.12%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Emmen win was 1-0 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
