Red Star Belgrade welcome Ludogorets Razgrad to the Rajko Mitic Stadium for the penultimate round of Europa League group games on Thursday evening.
The hosts lost top spot after a surprise defeat in the previous game and must now ensure they beat the group underdogs.
Match preview
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Red Star were sitting pretty at the halfway point of the group stages after two wins and a draw, but a 1-0 home defeat at the hands of FC Midtjylland last time out changed the complexion of Group F.
A Guelor Kanga own goal in the 56th minute proved to be the difference between the two sides - as Red Star had two men dismissed - and left the Danes just two points behind with two games remaining.
The Red-Whites have bounced back since then with three consecutive victories - most recently a 5-1 thrashing away at Mladost Lucani which featured an Aleksandar Katai hat-trick.
That means Dejan Stankovic's side have cut the gap to bitter rivals Partizan at the top of the Serbian SuperLiga to six points with a game in hand.
There is still plenty of work to do both domestically and in Europe, though, from the position they are currently in.
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Ludogorets have no such worries domestically - they remain four points clear at the top of the Bulgarian First League despite a 2-0 loss to CSKA Sofia at the weekend.
In the Europa League, however, they have struggled as expected. After a promising 1-1 draw in their opening game with Midtjylland - where Kiril Despodov equalised after an early Gustav Isaksen goal - they have lost the last three.
Back-to-back 1-0 home defeats to Red Star and Braga were followed by a 4-2 loss to the Portuguese side and anything but a win on Thursday will confirm their elimination from the tournament.
This campaign is already an improvement on last year's when they failed to earn a single point from a group containing Tottenham Hotspur, Royal Antwerp and LASK Linz, but will nonetheless be seen as a disappointment for the Bulgarian champions.
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Team News
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Defenders Marko Gobeljic and Milos Degenek were the two Red Star players sent off against Midtjylland and the pair will be suspended for Thursday's game.
Milan Gajic and Radovan Pankov will be the two to take their place in the back four of a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Mirko Ivanic, Kanga and Katai are battling for two spots in the team and, despite the latter's recent hat-trick, it is the first two that appear set to make the starting XI.
Olivier Verdon saw red at the weekend for Ludogorets but his domestic ban does not carry over into the Europa League and he will be free to start in another back four.
Wanderson and Anton Nedyalkov are both long-term injuries and are not due back until 2022, but Higinio Marin is nearing a return.
Red Star Belgrade possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Gajic, Dragovic, Pankov, Rodic; Srnic, Sanogo; Ben, Kaku, Ivanic; Pavkov
Ludogorets Razgrad possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Cicinho, Verdon, Plastun, Ikoko; Badji, Goncalves; Tekpetey; Yankov, Despodov; Sotiriou
We say: Red Star Belgrade 2-0 Ludogorets Razgrad
Despite a weakened defence after those two red cards last time out, Red Star should still have enough to comfortably dispatch the group minnows. We are backing a comfortable 2-0 home victory.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 53.01%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 21.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.98%), while for a Ludogorets Razgrad win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Red Star Belgrade in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Red Star Belgrade.
