New York City FC will try to remain unbeaten at home versus DC United when they host the Black-and-Red on Sunday afternoon at Red Bull Arena.
The Pigeons won their first match of the season at their new temporary home field on Wednesday, blanking Atlanta United 1-0, while DC are riding a three-match unbeaten run, which has them in the seventh and final playoff position in the Eastern Conference.
Match preview
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As they prepare to close out the month of June, Ronny Deila hopes that his team can gain some confidence from their first victory at Red Bull Arena after losing their two previous matches to the Columbus Crew and New England Revolution at that same stadium.
Deila had many things to be pleased about in their 1-0 win over Atlanta, as his side fired 18 shots and put the Five Stripes on their heels for a good portion of the match.
The club made history on Wednesday with three academy players being named to the starting XI for the first time ever as Andres Jasson, Tayvon Gray and James Sands all played pivotal roles in their victory.
For perhaps the first time all season, New York showed consistency while also being well organized through 90 minutes versus Atlanta, something we have usually seen from this team in past years, but something that they have struggled with at times in this campaign.
The Pigeons are used to having a lot of the ball but have struggled to create clear-cut chances with all of their possession.
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After losing three of their opening four fixtures, many people were writing DC United off, expecting another campaign near the bottom of the Eastern Conference table after finishing the 2020 season in 13th place.
Their fortunes have changed lately, and they have Inter Miami to thank for that, as the Black-and-Red defeated the Herons twice before earning a 0-0 draw with CF Montreal.
The proactive approach that manager Hernan Losada had been preaching to his team throughout the season appeared to get lost in their midweek draw with Montreal, where they squandered several opportunities, firing 27 shots but failing to find the mark despite having a man advantage for the entire second half.
Defensively, this team have done their job lately, allowing only 12 shots total in their last two matches and posting three consecutive clean sheets.
As good as they have looked lately, critics will say that they have not beaten a formidable opponent, with three of their four wins coming against non-playoff teams.
We will find out how good they are in the weeks to come, as two of their next three games are against sides who currently occupy one of the top four positions in the Eastern Conference (New York City FC and the Philadelphia Union).
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Team News
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Midfielder Gedion Zelalem continues to recover from a knee injury that has kept him out of the lineup for the entire year, while New York striker Heber is still suffering from the effects of a cruciate ligament rupture.
The club has yet to sort out the visa situation of left-winger Thiago Andrade, who has not played all season, and Alexander Callens is with Peru for the Copa America.
Striker Ismael Tajouri is making a solid case as to why he deserves to stay in the starting XI with four goals in his last four games, while defender Tayvon Gray made a solid first impression for New York, playing 60 minutes versus Atlanta and looking equally poised and comfortable as their regular right-back Anton Tinnerholm.
DC striker Ola Kamara has three goals in his last three matches as he leads the team with four strikes so far in 2021.
Bill Hamid has shutouts in three successive starts and has not conceded a goal in 315 minutes of regular season play.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Tinnerholm, Chanot, Sands, Amundsen; Parks; Medina, Acevedo, Jasson; Tajouri, Castellanos
DC United possible starting lineup:
Hamid; Najar, Hines-Ike, Pines; Nyeman, Canouse, Asad, Paredes; Arriola, Kamara, Reyna
We say: New York City FC 1-0 DC United
Neither side have been consistent so far, but New York have more attacking threats and have played teams far superior to the ones DC United have faced recently.
The Black-and-Red have lost four of their five games versus teams that are currently above them in the table, with DC failing to score in three of those five encounters.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 61.48%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for DC United had a probability of 16.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (5.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
