Nashville SC will put their unbeaten home record on the line on Tuesday when they welcome Orlando City to the Nissan Stadium in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
The visitors will appear in the post season for the second successive campaign, and they will aim to go further than the quarter-final stage they reached last year.
Match preview
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Last year, Nashville qualified for the playoffs in their inaugural season, and on that occasion, they reached the quarter-finals where they were subsequently eliminated by Columbus Crew.
This term, the Six-Strings have had a positive campaign, with a third-place finish in the Eastern Conference after suffering only four defeats in the regular season.
Gary Smith's side ended the season with an unusual set of results, with seven of their last nine encounters ending honours even, which resulted in Nashville ending the season with the most draws (19) in the MLS.
A factor of Nashville's success this term has been their superb home form, which has seen Tuesday's hosts end the regular season unbeaten at the Nissan Stadium.
The home side have shown their quality at both ends of the pitch scoring 55 goals, while remaining solid at the back, which is demonstrated by the 13 clean sheets they have kept this term.
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After finishing in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, Orlando will face a tough away trip, but they can take confidence from how they finished the regular season.
The Lions lost just one of their final eight games, and they have been clinical in front of goal, scoring in each of their last 11 outings.
Orlando had the third-highest away tally in the Eastern Conference, picking up 20 points on the road, and they will need to summon up a supreme away performance if they are to break Nashville's unbeaten home record.
They will also be encouraged by their recent away form, suffering only one defeat in their previous four games on the road.
The visitors will also be looking to Daryl Dike and Nani in the final third, after the pair grabbed 10 goals apiece in the regular season, and they will be key for the away side if they are to advance to the next round.
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Team News
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Nashville's Daniel Rios has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, and the forward is also expected to be absent on Tuesday.
After missing the last game against New York Red Bulls, David Romney will return to the back three.
Hany Mukhtar has scored three goals in his last four appearances, and he will partner CJ Sapong in the frontline.
Meanwhile, Orlando will be without the trio of Rio Hope-Gund, Adam Grinwis and Raul Aguilera Jr, who are all absent through injury.
After being an unused substitute for the final regular season game, Nani is expected to come back into the starting lineup for Tuesday's encounter.
Dike will lead the line for the visitors, and he enters the fixture in fine goalscoring form after scoring seven goals in his last nine appearances.
Nashville SC possible starting lineup:
Willis; Maher, Zimmerman, Romney; Johnston, Leal, Muyl, Godoy, Lovitz; Mukhtar, Sapong
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Ruan, Carlos, Jansson, Mas; Mendez, Urso, Pereyra; Mueller, Nani, Dike
We say: Nashville SC 2-1 Orlando City
Only three points separated the two sides at the end of the regular season, but with Nashville unbeaten at home this term, it is difficult to predict anything other than a win for the hosts.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 49.54%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Orlando City had a probability of 25.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Orlando City win it was 0-1 (7.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nashville SC would win this match.
