CF Montreal are now in must-win territory from here on out as they host the Houston Dynamo from Saputo Stadium on Wednesday.
After conceding an injury-time goal in a 1-0 defeat to the New York Red Bulls this weekend, Montreal are three points back of the final playoff position in the Eastern Conference, while the Dynamo have dropped three in a row.
Match preview
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It is now or never for Wilfried Nancy and Montreal, who cannot afford anything less than six points if they want to return to the postseason for a second successive MLS campaign.
They have not done themselves any favours by squandering points over their past two encounters, conceding in the 95th minute to draw Toronto 1-1 and giving up the winner to the Red Bulls in stoppage time as well.
Their passive approach may have helped them get results in the early stages of the campaign, but that style of play has not served them well in recent weeks, firing two shots on target or fewer in each of their last three matches.
Montreal enter this pivotal encounter unbeaten in their previous two home games, but with only one victory in their last six MLS affairs.
In their previous two league fixtures, the players have done an excellent job of breaking up the rhythm of their opponents and not allowing them to counter, but they have not been able to string together any dangerous attacks when gaining possession themselves.
Without an established number nine, much of the work from midfielder Djordje Mihailovic has been wasted, as they have not scored multiple goals in four straight matches in all competitions.
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The 2021 season will finally come to an end for the Dynamo on Wednesday, and for fans of this team, it could not come sooner.
With only one win in their last seven games, Orange Crush have not exactly given their supporters a lot to be encouraged about for 2022.
If you are Tab Ramos, you wish that the season did not have to end this week as the former American international has not done much to convince the new general manager Pat Onstad that he is the right man for the job next year.
While the results have not been there throughout the campaign, you cannot criticize the players for quitting, as they have put together a series of solid efforts over their previous three games but have lacked that quality needed in the final third.
The Dynamo have fired 19 shots on target on their current three-game slide, scoring only once as they aim to end a regular-season campaign on a winning note for the first time since 2019.
Playing on the road has been one of the many things that this team have struggled with throughout the year, failing to win a single match away from home with only six points to speak of all season.
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Team News
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Montreal midfielder Robert Thorkelsson remains on the sidelines with an adductor issue, while their top two goalscorers Mason Toye and Romell Quioto, are questionable with a shoulder and hamstring injury, respectively, Jean-Aniel Assi is having problems with his quadriceps and Victor Wanyama has an undisclosed injury.
Montreal made wholesale changes to their starting 11 on Saturday from their previous outing at the Canadian Championship, as Kamal Miller, Rudy Camacho, Mathieu Choiniere, Emanuel Maciel, Joaquin Torres and Mihailovic all began their game versus the Red Bulls.
Sebastian Breza has started the last two matches in goal rather than James Pantemis, stopping four of the five shots fired his way versus New York.
Boniek Garcia came off the bench on Sunday to earn his 235th cap for the Dynamo, while Juan Castilla made his league debut, coming on as a late substitute replacing Memo Rodriguez, and Darwin Quintero, who leads Houston in chances created, picked up his 157th MLS cap this past weekend.
The Dynamo could be missing Corey Baird, Mateo Bajamich, Teenage Hadebe, and Derrick Jones, who all have lower-body injuries.
Fafa Picault leads Houston in goals this year with 11 but has not scored since September 18, while no Dynamo player has found the back of the net since Maximiliano Urruti and Quintero tallied in their 2-1 win versus the Seattle Sounders.
CF Montreal possible starting lineup:
Breza; Miller, Camacho, Waterman; Hamdy, Piette, Maciel, Brault-Guillard; Lappalainen, Mihailovic; Ibrahim
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Maric; Parker, Figueroa, Fuenmayor; Ceren, Vera, Rodriguez, Junqua; Quintero; Urruti, Picault
We say: CF Montreal 1-0 Houston Dynamo
Neither side are particularly potent in the final third, but Montreal will be the more desperate team knowing that only a pair of victories will be enough to prolong their season beyond this upcoming Sunday.
The Dynamo have been poor on the road all season, while Montreal are at their best when playing at Saputo Stadium, and we expect that the crowd's enthusiasm could will the home side to victory.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 52.79%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 23.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 0-1 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
