Just three points separate MK Dons and Cambridge United ahead of their League One meeting on Saturday.
The Dons are seventh in the table, two points off the playoffs, with the U's slightly further behind in 10th place.
Match preview
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After losing just one of their opening 10 league matches, MK Dons have now lost three of their last five to slip out of the top six.
A 4-1 win against bottom-side Crewe Alexandra a fortnight ago will have served as a confidence booster, but Liam Manning's side then drew 2-2 with League Two strugglers Stevenage in the FA Cup last weekend.
This means they have a replay to prepare for on Tuesday, but regaining a playoff spot will take priority for now.
The Dons won their first four home league matches of the campaign, but are now winless in two at Stadium MK.
Cambridge's recent form has essentially been the opposite to that of their opponents – Mark Bonner's side went seven league matches without a victory but have now won their last two with clean sheets in both.
Like the Dons though, the U's will face an FA Cup replay on Tuesday after drawing 2-2 with Northampton Town last weekend.
They were in cup action again in midweek, losing 1-0 to Stevenage in the EFL Trophy but still progressing to the next round as group winners.
The only two previous meetings between Cambridge and MK Dons came in the 2018-19 League Two season; the Dons won both, including a 6-0 victory at Stadium MK.
Goals should almost be guaranteed in this fixture, as the hosts have only failed to score in two of 16 league matches this season and the visitors have only failed to net once.
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Team News
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MK Dons will be without striker Troy Parrott, who is on international duty with the Republic of Ireland.
Two positive Covid-19 tests in the Dons squad forced a group of players to self-isolate last week and miss the FA Cup tie, but it is unknown whether they will be able to return on Saturday.
Ethan Robson returned to the matchday squad last weekend following a month out injured and could feature.
Cambridge fielded a youthful side in their EFL Trophy clash in midweek, so should welcome back experienced players such as Wes Hoolahan and former MK Dons full-back George Williams.
Jack Lankester was unavailable last weekend as his partner gave birth to a baby boy, but the winger could return at Stadium MK.
Joe Ironside has scored just twice in his last nine league appearances after netting five times in the opening seven matches of the season.
MK Dons possible starting lineup:
Fisher; O'Hora, Darlington, Lewington; Baldwin, O'Riley, McEachran, Harvie; Twine; Watters, Eisa
Cambridge United possible starting lineup:
Mitov; Williams, Okedina, Masterson, Iredale; Digby, Weir; Tracey, Hoolahan, Smith; Ironside
We say: MK Dons 1-1 Cambridge United
MK Dons' chances of winning this game probably hinge on whether they will have players back who have been self-isolating. It should be a tight match regardless as Cambridge have found their feet in the third tier and we think it will end level.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 47.93%. A win for Cambridge United had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Cambridge United win was 1-2 (6.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
