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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 61.1%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 17.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-2 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
Result | ||
Wrexham | Draw | Northampton Town |
61.1% ( 0.04) | 20.92% ( -0.01) | 17.98% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 54.98% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.37% ( -0.03) | 41.63% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.97% ( -0.03) | 64.02% ( 0.02) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.84% ( 0) | 13.16% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.16% ( 0.01) | 39.84% ( -0.01) |
Northampton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.31% ( -0.06) | 36.69% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.52% ( -0.06) | 73.47% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Wrexham | Draw | Northampton Town |
2-1 @ 9.96% 2-0 @ 9.93% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.79% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.73% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.41% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.38% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.71% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.39% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0) Other @ 3.32% Total : 61.1% | 1-1 @ 9.82% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.99% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.83% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 20.92% | 1-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 4.84% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.43% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.65% ( -0) Other @ 2.48% Total : 17.98% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 30 |
3 | Wrexham | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
4 | Barnsley | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 25 |
5 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 25 |
6 | Stockport CountyStockport | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 24 |
7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 |
8 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 23 |
9 | Reading | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 23 |
10 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 23 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 22 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 27 | 4 | 21 |
13 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 19 |
14 | Stevenage | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 18 |
15 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
16 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 17 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 16 |
18 | Blackpool | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 16 |
19 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 |
20 | Leyton Orient | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 14 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 12 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 10 |
23 | Burton Albion | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 8 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 8 |
> League One Full Table |