Iraq will look to increase their lead at the top of World Cup qualification Group C when they take on Hong Kong at the Al Muharraq Stadium in Bahrain this week.

Hong Kong desperately need to pick up some points against Iraq if they are to steal a march on the bigger teams in the group.

Match preview

Following their 4-1 drubbing of Cambodia earlier this week, Iraq are now top of the group, just two points better off than Iran and Bahrain.

In the four games played since Iraq started playing again in May, they have scored 11 goals.

Against Cambodia, Mohanad Ali, Bashar Rasan, Ali Adnan and Safaa Hadi all got on the scoresheet.

A win this week could see Iraq go five points clear at the top of the group.

In contrast, Hong Kong are currently adrift in the depths of the group, with the team just four points better off than last-placed Cambodia.

Yet, the team are having a go of it, supplementing a win and a draw over Cambodia with another draw against Bahrain.

Last time out, Hong Kong were beaten 3-1 by Iran, with Cheng Siu Kwan scoring a consolation goal for the team in the 85th minute.

It remains to be seen whether Hong Kong have what it takes to get the better of Iraq, but a win would certainly come as a major shock to those in the group.

Hong Kong World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:

Iraq World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:

Team News

It is unlikely that Iraq will tinker too much to the side that beat Cambodia this week.

However, Al Husni and Mohammed Dawood Yaseen could feature this week after making cameo appearances against Cambodia.

Hong Kong could make changes ahead of this tie, particularly because the starting 11 was very ineffectual against Iran last time out.

Wong Wai, Chung Wai Keung and Ngan Lok Fung could all start for the team.

Hong Kong possible starting lineup:
Fai; Yang, Wa, Chan, Man; Wai, Orr, Him, Fung; Keung, Kwan

Iraq possible starting lineup:
Talib; Khalaf, Adnan, Mhawi; Al-Saedi, Hadi, Attwan, Rasan; Gubari, Yaseen, Hussen

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We say: Hong Kong 0-2 Iraq

This is Iraq's game to lose, and we do not expect Hong Kong to offer much in terms of going forward. We are going for a 2-0 success for Iraq.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Francis Buchanan

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Hong Kong had a probability of 35.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Hong Kong win was 1-0 (9.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Iraq in this match.